Pat Freiermuth is seeing less of the football with monster TE Darnell Washington breaking out. However, with QB2 Mason Rudolph potentially starting under center for the Steelers against Chicago, the old reliable Freiermuth could see more love based on his chemistry with the backup QB. These two connected back in 2023 with Freiermuth putting up 76, 44, and 21 yards receiving in three of four games with Rudolph at QB. He’s one of the best receiving options versus man coverage on the Steelers (much better than his fellow TEs) and will see a lot of one-on-one against Chicago (7th highest man rate). He caught the only pass his way in Week 11, striking for 19 yards, but has drawn three or more targets in the four games prior. His yardage prop for Week 12 has jumped from 13.5 to as high as 20.5 O/U at some books with projections at 25-plus, but you can still find a low of 17.5 yards.
D'Andre Swift has 12+ receiving yards in seven of nine games for 6.4 yards per target and 23 receptions for 210 yards. He also went good for 12 or more receiving yards in 11 of 17 games last season, and he’s only had a lower receiving yards total twice since joining the Bears. With the Steelers blitzing at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, I’m anticipating Swift being involved in the passing game as a means to mitigate the Pittsburgh pressure.
There aren’t many markets posted for this matchup, but Chicago’s passing game draws a great spot against a Pittsburgh defense that allows the most receiving yards to opposing wideouts. Rome Odunze should be the focal point of the Bears’ offense, especially with D’Andre Swift limited in practice. Odunze has scored in half his games this season and in three of four at home. The Steelers have four DBs out, and Darius Slay is questionable after sitting out last week with a concussion. With limited playable options due to all the offensive injuries, Odunze is the safest angle on the board, and there’s still 10–15 points of cushion in his number.
The Bears continue to play with fire, owning a 7-3 SU record despite an average MoV of -0.6 points. All but one of those seven victories have come in one-score games, with five decided by five points or less. Regression is catching the L Train to Soldier Field this Sunday. Pittsburgh’s defense can give Chicago a taste of its own medicine in Week 12. The Bears have thrived on takeaways to keep the team afloat, which has been the Steelers’ specialty for years. Mike Tomlin’s unit has looked much stronger the past three games, sitting No. 6 in EPA per play while collecting eight takeaways and 11 sacks. Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has faced the 10th highest pressure rate per dropback, leads the league in hurries suffered (48), and ranks fourth in pressured throws. His 44.7% completion rate under duress is 33rd among all QBs.
The Steelers will be rolling with backup quarterback Mason Rudolph in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. A passing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a -3-point underdog this week.. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a substantial boost in his pass-catching ability over last year's 89.6% rate.. Jaylen Warren ranks in the 76th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an outstanding 0.10 per game.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in football versus the Chicago Bears defense this year (74.9% Adjusted Completion%).
A rushing game script is implied by the Bears being a 3-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 54.8% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. The Steelers cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.
A rushing game script is implied by the Bears being a 3-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 54.8% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
A rushing game script is implied by the Bears being a 3-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 54.8% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. The Steelers cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.
The Steelers will be rolling with backup quarterback Mason Rudolph in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. A passing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a -3-point underdog this week.. After averaging 7.0 air yards per game last season, Darnell Washington has produced significantly more this season, currently boasting 15.0 per game.. Darnell Washington's 19.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 10.0.. Darnell Washington's 31.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year conveys a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last year's 15.0 figure.
At only 28.07 seconds per play, the Chicago Bears offense profiles as the 8th-fastest paced in the league (adjusted for context) this year.. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: most in the league.. The model projects D'Andre Swift to notch 3.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among running backs.. With an impressive 11.4% Target% (86th percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift ranks among the RB receiving threats with the most usage in the league.. The Chicago O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Steelers will be rolling with backup quarterback Mason Rudolph in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. A passing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a -3-point underdog this week.. With an impressive 94.1% Route% (94th percentile) this year, DK Metcalf stands as one of the WRs with the most usage in football.. In this contest, DK Metcalf is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 83rd percentile among WRs with 7.4 targets.. This year, the poor Bears defense has allowed a whopping 159.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing WRs: the 10th-worst in the league.
A rushing game script is implied by the Bears being a 3-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 54.8% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. The Steelers cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.
The Steelers will be rolling with backup quarterback Mason Rudolph in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. A passing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a -3-point underdog this week.. The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 50.9 plays per game.. The predictive model expects Mason Rudolph to total 2.2 carries in this game, on balance: the 6th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. The Chicago Bears linebackers profile as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football this year in regard to defending the run.
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