Chubb has rushed for more than 30 yards in eight of 10 games this year. While he had just three carries for 17 yards last week, expect a bigger workload on Thursday night. While Chubb has been ceding snaps to Woody Marks in recent weeks, the rookie hasn't been doing much with the extra carries. Marks had just 44 yards on 18 carries against Tennessee's piss-poor run defense in Week 11 and he's averaging 3.3 ypa over his last five games. That inefficiency from Marks could result in closer to a 50/50 split for the Texans running back duo this week. That should give Chubb more than enough carries to eclipse 20.5 yards against a Bills D that struggles against the run.
Houston is 18th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game to opposing QBs while ranking dead-last in yards allowed per scramble (10.7). That's bad news against Bills pivot Josh Allen who is big, fast, and more than willing to pick up tough yards on the ground. The reigning NFL MVP is second among all QBs with 351 rushing yards this season. The Texans lead the league in defensive dropback EPA and have the second-highest pass rush grade per PFF. If Allen is unable to find open receivers or feels pressure in the pocket, he'll take off and try to make plays with his feet.
The Texans selected Jayden Higgins with the 34th pick in the draft after a productive career at Iowa State where he was a third-team All-American in 2024. The rookie WR didn't see many targets earlier in the season but has grown into a reliable cog in Houston's passing attack. Davis Mills will start his third-straight game on TNF and Higgins has built a rapport with the backup QB. He had five receptions for 42 yards in Week 10 before hauling in four of seven targets for 55 yards last week. The Bills locks up tight ends and also do a good job of defending No. 1 wide receivers but they rank 22nd in DVOA against No. 2 WRs. That puts Higgins in a good spot to get open looks opposite Nico Collins.
Houston's elite defense is allowing a league-low 16.3 points per game, which has resulted in their games having an average combined score of just 38.3. They're awful offensively, however, where they rank 26th on third down and 31st in the redzone. We've seen the Bills' defense have some solid performances this season and they're in desperate need of a get-right spot. I think this will be a spot for the Bills D to shine, while Josh Allen will be limited by one of the league's top defenses.
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.. While Khalil Shakir has been responsible for 21.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Buffalo's passing attack near the end zone in this contest at 26.5%.. The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.. Khalil Shakir comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in the league, hauling in a terrific 78.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among wideouts.. The Houston Texans linebackers profile as the 3rd-best unit in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Davis Mills this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The Texans are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 61.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Davis Mills this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The Texans are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 61.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.. The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.. Josh Allen's 69.6% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a noteable improvement in his passing precision over last season's 64.7% rate.. With a fantastic 8.35 adjusted yards-per-target (91st percentile) this year, Josh Allen places among the best per-play quarterbacks in the league.
The Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Davis Mills this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The Texans are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 61.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.. In this contest, Khalil Shakir is predicted by the model to finish in the 91st percentile among WRs with 8.6 targets.. The leading projections forecast Khalil Shakir to be much more involved in his team's passing attack in this game (26.9% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (20.6% in games he has played).. The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.. Khalil Shakir comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in the league, hauling in a terrific 78.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
The Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Davis Mills this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The Texans are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 61.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
A rushing game script is indicated by the Bills being a 6-point favorite in this game.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 55.3% of their downs: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. Right now, the slowest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Buffalo Bills.. James Cook's 60.0% Snap% this season illustrates a significant growth in his offensive volume over last season's 50.0% figure.. The Texans defense has allowed the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 26.0) versus RBs this year.
The Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Davis Mills this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.. The Texans are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 61.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.. While Dawson Knox has received 7.0% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Buffalo's pass game in this week's game at 13.8%.. The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.. Dawson Knox has been one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among TEs, averaging an exceptional 9.34 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 85th percentile.. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Houston's collection of safeties has been terrible this year, projecting as the 10th-worst in the league.
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