Indianapolis @ New York props

The Giants will be forced to use backup quarterback Drew Lock in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. This week's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Giants, who are massive -7.5-point underdogs. The projections expect the Giants as the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Colts pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.1%) vs. WRs this year (70.1%).

When it comes to pocket protection (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the New York Giants profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.

Right now, the least pass-heavy team in football (51.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Indianapolis Colts. The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. In this contest, Josh Downs is forecasted by our trusted projection set to place in the 95th percentile among wide receivers with 9.6 targets. Josh Downs has been much more involved in his offense's passing offense this year (26.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.2%). The Colts O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The Giants will be forced to use backup quarterback Drew Lock in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. This week's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Giants, who are massive -7.5-point underdogs. The projections expect the Giants as the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Giants have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 59.9 plays per game.

Right now, the least pass-heavy team in football (51.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Indianapolis Colts. The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. Jonathan Taylor's 62.2% Route% this season illustrates a noteable growth in his passing offense usage over last season's 47.1% figure. The Colts O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board. When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, New York's group of safeties has been terrible this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league.

Wan'Dale Robinson has gone over 4.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Adonai Mitchell has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Darius Slayton has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Alec Pierce has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.