Washington @ Baltimore props

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Commanders to pass on 55.2% of their chances: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run only 62.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Commanders to pass on 55.2% of their chances: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run only 62.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Ravens being an enormous 8-point favorite in this week's contest. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 48.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Commanders linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Ravens being an enormous 8-point favorite in this week's contest. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 48.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Zay Flowers's 68.9% Adjusted Catch% this season illustrates a noteworthy decrease in his receiving prowess over last season's 75.1% figure.

The Baltimore Ravens have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 60.0 plays per game. The leading projections forecast Isaiah Likely to accrue 3.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Isaiah Likely's 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 16.0. The Ravens O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board. Isaiah Likely ranks as one of the top TE receiving threats this year, averaging an outstanding 3.2 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a massive -8-point underdog in this week's game. The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (40.6 per game) this year. The predictive model expects Austin Ekeler to accrue 4.1 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Commanders ranks as the best in the NFL this year. With a fantastic 2.8 adjusted catches per game (77th percentile) this year, Austin Ekeler ranks among the top pass-game running backs in the league.

Rashod Bateman has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Mark Andrews has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Luke McCaffrey has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Nelson Agholor has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Noah Brown has gone over 2.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Justice Hill has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.