New Orleans @ Kansas City props

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a huge 8-point favorite in this week's game. The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Chiefs have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 54.0 plays per game. The Saints pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (59.7%) to WRs this year (59.7%). The Saints linebackers rank as the 5th-best unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a huge 8-point favorite in this week's game. The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Chiefs have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 54.0 plays per game. Travis Kelce's 3.6 adjusted receptions per game this year indicates a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 6.2 rate. Travis Kelce's 66.2% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last year's 80.1% mark.

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a huge 8-point favorite in this week's game. The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Chiefs have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 54.0 plays per game. Kareem Hunt is positioned as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, hauling in a measly 73.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 20th percentile. Since the start of last season, the formidable New Orleans Saints defense has allowed a measly 75.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 3rd-best rate in football.

At a -8-point disadvantage, the Saints are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach. The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in the league. In this week's contest, Juwan Johnson is expected by the projections to rank in the 76th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 3.5 targets. Juwan Johnson's 77.4% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a noteworthy progression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 64.1% mark.

At a -8-point disadvantage, the Saints are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach. The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in the league. Our trusted projections expect Alvin Kamara to garner 6.6 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs. With a remarkable 19.6% Target% (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Alvin Kamara rates among the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the league.

At a -8-point disadvantage, the Saints are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach. The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in the league. In this contest, Chris Olave is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.3 targets. With a terrific 5.1 adjusted receptions per game (87th percentile) this year, Chris Olave ranks among the top wide receivers in the game in the league.

Foster Moreau has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Justin Watson has gone over 2.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

Rashid Shaheed has gone over 3.5 in 3 of his last 6 games.

Noah Gray has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

JuJu Smith-Schuster has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Samaje Perine has gone over 2.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Mecole Hardman has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.