Dallas @ Washington props

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually prompt decreased passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Cowboys, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (just 30.8 per game) this year. Terry McLaurin's 60.0% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a material regression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 67.4% mark. The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (58.5%) versus WRs this year (58.5%). The Cowboys linebackers grade out as the 6th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are expected by the model to run 67.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week. The 6th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 60.2 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game versus the Commanders defense this year: 8th-most in football. In this game, CeeDee Lamb is expected by the projection model to slot into the 97th percentile among wideouts with 10.9 targets. CeeDee Lamb's play as a receiver has gotten a boost this year, compiling 7.5 adjusted catches vs a measly 6.2 last year.

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are expected by the model to run 67.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week. The 6th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 60.2 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game versus the Commanders defense this year: 8th-most in football. Jake Ferguson's 75.4% Route Participation% this season represents a substantial progression in his passing game usage over last season's 18.3% rate. In this contest, Jake Ferguson is expected by the projections to rank in the 92nd percentile among TEs with 6.2 targets.

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are expected by the model to run 67.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week. The 6th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 60.2 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game versus the Commanders defense this year: 8th-most in football. Tony Pollard's 59.5% Route% this season illustrates a noteable boost in his pass attack workload over last season's 44.3% figure. With a remarkable 3.3 adjusted receptions per game (94th percentile) this year, Tony Pollard ranks among the leading pass-game RBs in the league.

This game's line indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Commanders, who are enormous -13.5-point underdogs. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to pass on 66.4% of their opportunities: the highest frequency on the slate this week. The projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.6 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. With an exceptional 75.6% Route Participation Rate (88th percentile) this year, Logan Thomas rates among the tight ends with the highest volume in football. With a terrific 3.5 adjusted catches per game (80th percentile) this year, Logan Thomas places as one of the leading tight ends in the pass game in the NFL.

Brandin Cooks has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Michael Gallup has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Antonio Gibson has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Jahan Dotson has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Curtis Samuel has gone over 3.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.