Buffalo @ Miami props

A running game script is indicated by the Bills being a 3-point favorite in this game. The model projects the Bills to be the 6th-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 28.47 seconds per snap. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Miami's safety corps has been terrific this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

The projections expect the Bills to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.4% pass rate. The projections expect Dalton Kincaid to accrue 5.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Dalton Kincaid has been heavily involved in his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 17.3% this year, which ranks him in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Dalton Kincaid profiles as one of the leading pass-game TEs this year, averaging a terrific 4.4 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 89th percentile. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been torched for the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (76.9%) versus TEs this year (76.9%).

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach. The predictive model expects the Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. This week, Tyreek Hill is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs with 12.9 targets. Tyreek Hill has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 31.8% this year, which ranks him in the 99th percentile among WRs. With a stellar 7.5 adjusted catches per game (99th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill places as one of the leading WRs in the game in the league.

The projections expect the Bills to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.4% pass rate. In this week's contest, Stefon Diggs is anticipated by the model to find himself in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.2 targets. With an impressive 29.9% Target% (95th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs places among the WRs with the most usage in the NFL. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year. The Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.3%) vs. WRs this year (70.3%).

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach. The predictive model expects the Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. In this contest, Devon Achane is projected by the projection model to position himself in the 96th percentile among RBs with 5.3 targets. Devon Achane has been a big part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 11.5% this year, which places him in the 87th percentile among running backs. Devon Achane comes in as one of the top running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a fantastic 2.6 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.

At the present time, the 6th-most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Dolphins. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Dolphins profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year. The Bills linebackers project as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in regard to rushing the passer.

Dawson Knox has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Gabe Davis has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Trent Sherfield has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Braxton Berrios has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Khalil Shakir has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Ty Johnson has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Cedrick Wilson Jr. has gone over 3.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.