Miami @ Baltimore props

This week's spread implies a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3-point underdogs. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to pass on 0.0% of their downs: the lowest rate among all teams this week. The Ravens defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (40.6 per game) this year. In this game, Devon Achane is projected by the predictive model to slot into the 96th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.6 targets. Devon Achane's 18.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) ranks among the best in the NFL: 87th percentile for RBs.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are forecasted by the model to call 66.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week. With an extraordinary 93.6% Route Participation% (92nd percentile) this year, Zay Flowers rates among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football. In this contest, Zay Flowers is forecasted by the projection model to rank in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.3 targets. With an excellent 5.0 adjusted catches per game (88th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers rates among the top pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70%) versus wide receivers this year (70.0%).

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are forecasted by the model to call 66.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week. Justice Hill has been used more as a potential target this year (39.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (24.6%). When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Ravens profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

This week's spread implies a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3-point underdogs. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to pass on 0.0% of their downs: the lowest rate among all teams this week. The Ravens defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (40.6 per game) this year. The leading projections forecast Tyreek Hill to garner 12.5 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile among wideouts. With a remarkable 7.6 adjusted receptions per game (99th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill rates as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL.

This week's spread implies a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3-point underdogs. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to pass on 0.0% of their downs: the lowest rate among all teams this week. The Ravens defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (40.6 per game) this year. Durham Smythe's 71.7% Route Participation% this season conveys a noteable progression in his passing offense usage over last season's 27.1% rate. Durham Smythe's 2.7 adjusted catches per game this year marks a significant growth in his pass-catching skills over last year's 1.2 rate.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are forecasted by the model to call 66.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week. In this contest, Isaiah Likely is forecasted by the model to position himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.3 targets. The model projects Isaiah Likely to be much more involved in his team's air attack in this game (17.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.8% in games he has played). Isaiah Likely's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 65.4% to 82.0%. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (76.8%) vs. tight ends this year (76.8%).

Cedrick Wilson Jr. has gone over 3.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

Nelson Agholor has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Gus Edwards has gone over 1.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Odell Beckham Jr. has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Rashod Bateman has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.