Cleveland @ Houston props

The predictive model expects the Houston Texans to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide. This week, Noah Brown is forecasted by the projection model to rank in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.6 targets. While Noah Brown has earned 17.9% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Houston's passing offense in this week's game at 24.0%. Noah Brown's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 62.3% to 65.3%.

This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Texans, who are -3-point underdogs. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 136.0 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide. In this week's contest, Dalton Schultz is forecasted by the projection model to place in the 87th percentile among TEs with 5.8 targets. Dalton Schultz profiles as one of the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 3.7 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to pass on 60.5% of their chances: the 9th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. The model projects the Cleveland Browns to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Browns have run the most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 65.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Texans pass defense has yielded the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (76.9%) to TEs this year (76.9%).

This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Texans, who are -3-point underdogs. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 136.0 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide. The projections expect Nico Collins to total 8.1 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to pass on 60.5% of their chances: the 9th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. The model projects the Cleveland Browns to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Browns have run the most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 65.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this contest, Amari Cooper is projected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.6 targets.

At the present time, the 10th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (59.0% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Texans. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Browns, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.0 per game) this year. Devin Singletary's 45.0% Route Participation Rate this season represents a material drop-off in his passing attack workload over last season's 56.0% rate. Devin Singletary's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 80.3% to 75.5%. The Browns linebackers rank as the 8th-best collection of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to pass on 60.5% of their chances: the 9th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. The model projects the Cleveland Browns to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Browns have run the most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 65.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Texans pass defense has been torched for the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.4%) versus RBs this year (86.4%).

Robert Woods has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Cedric Tillman has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Elijah Moore has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.