Cincinnati @ Jacksonville props

The Bengals may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more carries) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jake Browning. This week's line implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bengals, who are huge -10.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: 5th-most in football. Tanner Hudson's 3.7 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects an impressive improvement in his receiving skills over last season's 1.7 mark.

The Bengals may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more carries) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jake Browning. This week's line implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bengals, who are huge -10.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: 5th-most in football. With an outstanding 6.8 adjusted receptions per game (95th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase places as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL.

With a 10.5-point advantage, the Jaguars are heavily favored in this game, implying much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week. The predictive model expects this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This year, the imposing Cincinnati Bengals defense has surrendered a paltry 62.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 8th-smallest rate in the NFL.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 60.3 plays per game. Travis Etienne has run more routes this season (63.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (48.8%). In this game, Travis Etienne is forecasted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.7 targets. Travis Etienne's pass-catching performance been refined this year, accumulating 3.3 adjusted receptions vs a mere 2.1 last year. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Bengals may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more carries) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jake Browning. This week's line implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bengals, who are huge -10.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: 5th-most in football. The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (83.3%) to RBs this year (83.3%).

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 60.3 plays per game. The leading projections forecast Evan Engram to total 6.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among TEs. Evan Engram's 42.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 36.6. Evan Engram's pass-catching performance improved this year, totaling 5.8 adjusted catches vs a measly 4.3 last year. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (81.2%) versus tight ends this year (81.2%).

Tee Higgins has gone over 3.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Tyler Boyd has gone over 3.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Luke Farrell has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Zay Jones has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 9 games.

Irv Smith Jr. has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Calvin Ridley has gone over 4.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.