Cleveland @ Denver props

The model projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cleveland Browns are projected by the model to run just 63.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL. David Njoku's 37.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 42.8. David Njoku's 67.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this year marks an impressive drop-off in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 77.2% mark.

The highest number of plays in football have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a monstrous 66.9 per game on average). In this week's contest, Amari Cooper is anticipated by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 80th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.3 targets. Amari Cooper ranks in the 88th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) with a remarkable 64.4 mark this year. The Cleveland O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board. Amari Cooper ranks as one of the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 4.5 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.

The model projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cleveland Browns are projected by the model to run just 63.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL. Jerome Ford profiles as one of the most unreliable receivers in football when it comes to RBs, completing a measly 69.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 9th percentile.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may decline. The Denver O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all air attack metrics across the board. With a stellar 2.5 adjusted catches per game (79th percentile) this year, Javonte Williams ranks among the best pass-catching running backs in the league. Javonte Williams's 87.9% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a material boost in his pass-catching skills over last year's 77.6% rate.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may decline. Courtland Sutton has run a route on 91.9% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. The model projects Courtland Sutton to garner 6.6 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 76th percentile when it comes to wideouts. The Denver O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all air attack metrics across the board. Courtland Sutton profiles as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 4.5 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may decline. Adam Trautman's 70.1% Route Participation% this season illustrates an impressive growth in his pass game utilization over last season's 28.5% figure. The Denver O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

Jaleel McLaughlin has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Jerry Jeudy has gone over 3.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Samaje Perine has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Elijah Moore has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Marvin Mims Jr. has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.