Tampa Bay @ Indianapolis props

The projections expect the Buccaneers offense to skew 4.3% more towards the run game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays. With regard to a defense's effect on pace, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has caused opposing teams to play 10th-slowest in the league (in a neutral context) this year at 28.03 seconds per play. The Colts safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts offensive blueprint to skew 1.2% more towards the rushing attack than it did last year (adjusted for context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays. Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.2% pass rate. Jonathan Taylor's 49.0% Route Participation% this season marks a substantial decline in his passing offense volume over last season's 64.8% mark.

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline. Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to notch 8.9 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers. With a RATE1-RATE2 point gain in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Mike Evans has been more heavily incorporated in his offense's passing attack. Mike Evans checks in as one of the top pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a fantastic 4.7 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by the predictive model to run 66.9 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week. The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Colts this year (a monstrous 59.9 per game on average). The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.1 per game) this year. With a RATE1-RATE2 point gain in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Kylen Granson has been more prominently featured in his offense's passing attack.

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline. Rachaad White's 68.6% Route% this season illustrates a significant boost in his passing offense volume over last season's 32.7% rate. In this week's contest, Rachaad White is predicted by the projections to rank in the 94th percentile among RBs with 4.9 targets. Rachaad White's 4.1 adjusted receptions per game this year shows a meaningful growth in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 3.1 mark.

Alec Pierce has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Josh Downs has gone over 4.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Chris Godwin has gone over 4.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Trey Palmer has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.