Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati props

The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all air attack stats across the board. Diontae Johnson's 56.2% Adjusted Catch% this year shows a noteable drop-off in his receiving skills over last year's 61.4% mark. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (60.7%) to wideouts this year (60.7%).

Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Bengals. The Cincinnati O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing game statistics across the board. This year, the tough Steelers defense has given up a mere 63.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 9th-smallest rate in football. The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Pat Freiermuth's 9.7% Target% this year marks a meaningful decrease in his pass game workload over last year's 18.9% mark. The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all air attack stats across the board. Pat Freiermuth's 1.8 adjusted receptions per game this year conveys a material regression in his receiving skills over last year's 4.3 mark. Pat Freiermuth's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 67.8% to 64.5%.

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.48 seconds per play. The model projects Jaylen Warren to accumulate 4.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among RBs. Jaylen Warren's 14.2% Target Rate this season shows a noteworthy gain in his air attack utilization over last season's 6.3% rate. Jaylen Warren's play as a receiver has gotten a boost this year, totaling 3.4 adjusted receptions vs just 1.8 last year. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Cincinnati's safety corps has been awful this year, ranking as the worst in football.

The Cincinnati Bengals may pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be rolling out backup quarterback Jake Browning. The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 67.1% pass rate. The predictive model expects Joe Mixon to accumulate 4.0 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Tyler Boyd has gone over 3.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Najee Harris has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

George Pickens has gone over 3.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.