Seattle @ Baltimore props

A passing game script is implied by the Seahawks being a -5.5-point underdog this week. The model projects the Seahawks to be the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. As far as a defense's impact on tempo, at 27.60 seconds per snap, the model projects the Seahawks to be the 10th-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in football. With an outstanding 4.8 adjusted receptions per game (82nd percentile) this year, D.K. Metcalf stands among the best wide receivers in the league in the NFL.

Noah Fant's 16.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 24.6. The Ravens pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.8%) to TEs this year (68.8%). The Ravens safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5.5 points. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 50.2% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week. The model projects the Ravens offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap. Mark Andrews's 49.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 69.0.

A passing game script is implied by the Seahawks being a -5.5-point underdog this week. The model projects the Seahawks to be the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. As far as a defense's impact on tempo, at 27.60 seconds per snap, the model projects the Seahawks to be the 10th-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in football. Kenneth Walker's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 77.5% to 86.6%.

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL. Zay Flowers has run a route on 92.8% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 91st percentile among wideouts. The predictive model expects Zay Flowers to notch 7.6 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts. Zay Flowers comes in as one of the leading WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 5.6 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL. Gus Edwards's 30.5% Route Participation Rate this season signifies a noteworthy gain in his pass attack utilization over last season's 9.6% mark. The Baltimore offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board. With an outstanding 100.0% Adjusted Completion Rate (100th percentile) this year, Gus Edwards ranks as one of the best possession receivers in football among running backs.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gone over 3.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Tyler Lockett has gone over 4.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Justice Hill has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Rashod Bateman has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Nelson Agholor has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Odell Beckham Jr. has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.