North Carolina Tar Heels Picks
14th in ACC
(2 - 2)
Next Game
UNC @ PITT Picks
NCAAF PicksPlayable at anything Under 70.5. Jordan Shipp stands to benefit from a pass-funnel matchup against Pittsburgh, which limits runs (2.0 yards per rush allowed) but has a burnable secondary (67th in EPA per pass and 117th in passing explosiveness allowed).
North Carolina's defense wears down as the game goes on, and Pitt will take advantage. The Panthers hold possession 31:38 per game and convert 46% of their third downs. Antonio Chadha is a perfect 5-for-5 on field goals and 23-for-23 on extra points, so even stalled drives turn into points.
The Tar Heels can add their own points. Pitt's pass defense just allowed 434 yards at Virginia Tech, and Billy Edwards Jr. threw three touchdown passes against Notre Dame. Jaden Jefferson returned a kickoff 98 yards against the Irish, and Pitt allows 25.8 yards per kick return.
Pitt has scored on 18 of 22 red-zone trips, including 14 touchdowns. Play this up to 47.5.
The Panthers are 4-0 at home, outscoring opponents 157-34, and haven't allowed a third-quarter point. North Carolina has been outscored 26-9 in the fourth quarter and has dropped its last four conference games. I'll lay it up to -4.
All three legs follow the same script. Pittsburgh leans on the run, North Carolina's front wears down in the second half, and the Panthers do enough to win. The moneyline means Pitt doesn't need to cover, so a late Tar Heels touchdown doesn't hurt. UNC keeps pace early with big plays through the air and on returns, pushing the scoreboard past 46.5.
Consensus Picks
More ConsensusUNC @ PITT · Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
PITT
H. Geriner
(QB)
o204.5 Passing Yards
237.09 OVER
PROJECTION
+32.6
DIFFERENCE
25.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
UNC
B. Edwards Jr.
(QB)
u210.5 Passing Yards
210.10 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
20.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UNC
D. June
(RB)
o25.5 Rushing Yards
34.95 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.5
DIFFERENCE
25.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UNC
B. Hall
(RB)
o41.5 Rushing Yards
52.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.7
DIFFERENCE
25.18%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNC
C. Sadler
(WR)
o19.5 Receiving Yards
34.03 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.5
DIFFERENCE
26.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNC
J. Shipp
(WR)
o59.5 Receiving Yards
73.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.4
DIFFERENCE
26.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
PITT
B. Yates
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
36.33 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.8
DIFFERENCE
25.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
PITT
C. Lee
(WR)
o35.5 Receiving Yards
40.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.2
DIFFERENCE
21.8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNC
T. Kekahuna
(WR)
o17.5 Receiving Yards
24.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.7
DIFFERENCE
20.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNC
B. Hall
(RB)
o6.5 Receiving Yards
9.35 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.8
DIFFERENCE
18.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
PITT
J. Turner
(RB)
o17.5 Receiving Yards
19.29 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.8
DIFFERENCE
14.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
PITT
B. Hicks
(WR)
u49.5 Receiving Yards
47.21 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.3
DIFFERENCE
12.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
PITT
C. Kent
(TE)
o24.5 Receiving Yards
27.26 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.8
DIFFERENCE
-27.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
PITT
J. Turner
(RB)
u3.5 Receptions
2.50 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
18.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
PITT
C. Lee
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions
3.12 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
3.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
PITT
J. Turner
(RB)
u14.5 Carries
14.33 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
4.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
UNC
B. Edwards Jr.
(QB)
o17.5 Completions
19.19 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
12.58%
EV
|
|||||||
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