Notre Dame @ Arkansas Picks & Props

Notre Dame's defense has been shockingly poor and will be ripped apart by Taylen Green and the Arkansas offense. The Hogs haven't been a whole lot better, and Notre Dame will punish their 107th-ranked EPA/rush defense. This game should be a thrilling shootout and I'll be surprised if it doesn't go well past the total and hit the 70-point mark. 

Love is the most talented RB in the country, and the Hawgs have struggled mightily at slowing down opposing ground games, ranking 127th in EPA per rush and 132nd in rushing success rate allowed.

Expect plenty of points in Fayetteville, and when trying to find where they will come from, trust the best unit on the field against the worst. In other words, trust Notre Dame's running backs. While Jeremiyah Love may be a sure thing, the -390 juice is too steep. Jadarian Price has six touchdowns in the last two games. He is hardly a long shot.

Taylen Green and the Hogs rank Top 15 in explosive pass rate and Top 30 in explosive run rate. That's bad news for a Notre Dame defense that just allowed Purdue to throw for more than 300 yards and post 23 first-half points. 

Defensively, Notre Dame ranks near the bottom nationally in pass success rate, net EPA/drive, and net EPA/play. Two major reasons for this are the explosive plays being allowed, and the lack of havoc being caused. Those factors allowed Purdue to connect on 11 “big plays” on Saturday, adding to the 47 plays of 10+ yards the Irish have allowed in three games.

Only Texas Tech has more plays of 10+ yards this season than the Hogs, and the 32 plays of 20+ yards are more than all but four teams. But Arkansas is giving up quite a few explosive plays as well. Opponents are averaging nearly 15 plays of at least 10 yards per game, and the Razorbacks rank 107th in EPA/rush and 89th in early down EPA/play.

Green’s dual-threat ability will create nightmares for the Irish, and Arkansas’ up-tempo style will help facilitate a shootout.

Taylen Green and the Arkansas offense will have opportunities to put up points against a Notre Dame defense that is leakier than a wicker canoe. As we’ll discuss more in the total section, the Irish are giving up big plays like they’re handing out Halloween candy. And in this economy, that’s saying something. 

That’s not to say the Razorbacks are playing well on defense, but neither did Texas A&M. And while the Aggies are certainly better defensively than the Hogs, the Arkansas offense is likely the best one Notre Dame has seen this season outside of Miami.

Arkansas is playing at home, with an explosive offense that can put up points in a hurry. The Irish are running the ball well, but the passing game has shown inconsistencies. Not only do I believe that the Razorbacks will cover, but don’t be surprised if you see them in my Underdog picks later this week.