Wake Forest @ Duke preview

Last Meeting ( Sep 11, 2010 ) Duke 48, Wake Forest 54

THE STORY: Wake Forest and Duke both stumbled last week in their toughest tests of the season. Wake scored just one touchdown in the first three quarters of a 38-17 loss to Virginia Tech, while Duke was never competitive in a 41-16 loss to Florida State. Duke needs three wins over its final six games to become bowl eligible, and it’s unlikely that will happen without a home win over Wake. The Demon Deacons can’t afford a loss if they want to stay in the thick of the ACC Atlantic Division race. The in-state rivalry has produced some recent classics, with only one of the last five matchups decided by more than six points.

TV: ACC Network. LINE: Wake Forest -3

ABOUT WAKE FOREST (4-2, 3-1 ACC): The Demon Deacons have relied too much on the big play and it caught up to them in a big way against a more athletic and ultra-disciplined Hokie defense last week. Tanner Price’s 79-yard touchdown to Chris Givens gave Wake an early lead, but it followed with nine straight possessions of four plays or less. Long, sustained drives will continue to be a rarity for this offense unless coach Jim Grobe can find balance with the ball. Wake ranks 105th in rushing with just 103.5 yards per game.

ABOUT DUKE (3-3, 1-1 ACC): The Blue Devils are banged up on the offensive line but that might not be as a big a detriment as it was last week considering Wake ranks last in the conference with just six sacks. Quarterback Sean Renfree would cherish extra time in the pocket, particularly in the red zone. The Blue Devils rank last in the ACC in red-zone efficiency, while Wake leads the conference in that category. Renfree has been efficient in between the 20s but has thrown just six touchdowns. He could certainly boost that number against a Wake Forest defense that's allowed 13 touchdowns on 20 red-zone trips.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Wake Forest has won the last 11 meetings, including a 54-48 barnburner last year.

2. For all of Price’s athleticism, he hasn’t been able to succeed on third downs, where the Demon Deacons rank last in the ACC with a 37.4 percent conversion rate.

3. Price could take plenty of chances deep against a Duke secondary that has just three interceptions.

PREDICTION: Wake Forest 42, Duke 30 – Givens enters the game with three straight 100-yard receiving efforts and should torch Duke's secondary.