Houston vs Utah   Picks & Props

Utah's offense is one of the most efficient in the country and I like the Utes to hit their team total Over at 32.5 or better. Utah ranks top 20 in offenisve success rate (49.3%) and points per opportunity (4.80.). Houston's defense is just 81st in success rate (44.9%).

Houston and Utah are a combined 9-4 to the Over this season, and I'd take it to hit at 57.5 or better. In four games against offenses ranked in the top 25 by SP+, Houston has hit the Over three times. Utah's offense is ranked No. 11 by SP+, No. 17 in offensive success rate (49.3%), and No. 14 in points per opportunity (4.80).

Conner Weigman's legs are particularly useful when the outcome is in doubt, rushing for 50+ yards against Texas Tech (close loss), UCF, and Oklahoma State (close wins). Utah's defense hasn't created many negative plays in the backfield (128th in front seven havoc), and Weigman has averaged 46.5 rushing yards since the start of last season.

Koby Young leads the Cougars with a massive 19.3 average depth of target and 21.8 yards per reception. He can hit big plays against a Utah secondary that gives them up, ranking 106th in passing explosiveness allowed.

Amare Thomas has found the end zone 18 times since the start of last season. Utah has surrendered multiple passing scores in consecutive games, so this defense isn't as infallible as the market thinks.

Amare Thomas is averaging 79 yards across his last 17 games, and his prop line should be set accordingly. It's not, so we're backing the value.

Although Utah struggled to close out its win against Colorado last week, I like the Utes up to -9.5 at home with College GameDay in Salt Lake City. The Cougars are coming off a big shootout win and are in a letdown spot against a Utah team with an offense and defense both ranked top 20 by SP+. Houston's poor defensive play (111th in net EPA per play) is bound to catch up to it against Devon Dampier.