Virginia Tech vs Clemson   Picks & Props

Virginia Tech's defense ranks 17th nationally in rushing yards allowed, setting up a tough matchup for a Clemson offense averaging just 19.4 points per game. With the Hokies allowing only 24 points per game and ranking 71st in situation-adjusted pace, the Under 48.5 is playable.

Clemson is not the powerhouse it used to be, and its 2-4 ATS record tells the story. Virginia Tech has a prime opportunity to make a statement against one of the ACC’s longtime top dogs, with a 13-day break afterward to prepare for SMU. I’m backing the Hokies as underdogs, with an outright upset worth considering.

It's all about the matchup. Bryant Wesco Jr. faces a Virginia Tech defense ranked 104th in EPA per pass allowed, recently coughing up 335 passing yards to a previously dormant Georgia Tech aerial assault and 321 yards to Cal's backup quarterback. 

Luke Reynolds is leading all tight ends nationally with 43 receptions and 449 receiving yards. He's eclipsed this number in five of seven contests, so it's set too low against Clemson.

Clemson continues to disappoint, and I’m more than happy to keep fading Dabo Swinney and the Tigers. With only four wins against a questionable schedule, their resume leaves plenty to be desired. The North Carolina win was far less impressive than the final score suggests, and I’m grabbing the points with a team I believe is being undervalued in this matchup.

My power ratings make Virginia Tech a 1-point favorite, again one of biggest disparities of the week. Since the start of the season, I have downgraded Clemson’s power rating by 8.5 points. That’s the second-biggest downgrade among Power Four teams behind only Oregon. Virginia Tech has been significantly better in the stats, as they are outgaining their opponents by 135 yards per game while Clemson is only outgaining their opponents by 10 yards per game. Virginia Tech’s defense does not get enough credit in the market. Virginia Tech is No. 1 in stuff rate, No. 1 in tackles for loss, and No. 2 in Havoc. They're taking on a Clemson team that has the worst starting quarterback in the Power Four. True freshman Tait Reynolds is No. 127 in QBR. He leads a Clemson offense that ranks No. 127 in EPA/Play and No. 126 in success rate.