Michigan State vs UCLA Picks & Props
MSU vs UCLA Picks
NCAAF PicksUCLA has dominated inferior competition all season, winning by an average of 26 points against teams with losing records. The Bruins have already shown their blowout potential, beating Maryland by 51 points on Sept. 26. Michigan State has covered in two emotional games for Pat Fitzgerald, but this matchup is a different beast. Lay the points with UCLA at home.
I'd play Michigan State at +14 or above. Ty Dieffenbach has as many career interceptions as touchdowns (10), so I don't trust him to create margin against a Sparty team that is 5-2 ATS.
In Michigan State's games against strong defenses, it managed three points (Wisconsin), 10 points (Notre Dame), and 13 points (Nebraska).
Sparty's offense is inefficient (119th in EPA per play) and struggles to generate big plays (133rd in explosiveness). UCLA locks down defensively (second in EPA per play) while the offense ranks 125th in seconds per snap (29.4) and has a turnover-prone quarterback.
UCLA's defense will have success, but what about the offense? Our first glimpse of the Bruins sans Nico Iamaleava was a 17-point effort where the defense carried the weight.
MSU vs UCLA Consensus Picks
41% picking Michigan State
Total Picks MSU 141, UCLA 200
MSU vs UCLA Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
UCLA
-15.5 spread
-15.99
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
9.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL
Over
43.5 Total
45.51 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.0
DIFFERENCE
11.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
MSU
A. Milivojevic
(QB)
o158.5 Passing Yards
171.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.5
DIFFERENCE
22.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
UCLA
T. Dieffenbach
(QB)
o181.5 Passing Yards
191.55 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.1
DIFFERENCE
20.85%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UCLA
J. Thomas
(RB)
o29.5 Rushing Yards
38.04 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.5
DIFFERENCE
24.34%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UCLA
A. Woods
(RB)
o43.5 Rushing Yards
48.79 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.3
DIFFERENCE
20.92%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
UCLA
W. Knight
(RB)
o84.5 Rushing Yards
85.04 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-6.34%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MSU
J. Savoury
(TE)
o26.5 Receiving Yards
36.34 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.8
DIFFERENCE
25.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
S. Morgan
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
49.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+10.1
DIFFERENCE
25.14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MSU
R. Bullard Jr.
(WR)
o24.5 Receiving Yards
30.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.4
DIFFERENCE
24.91%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MSU
C. McCray
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
36.55 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.1
DIFFERENCE
24.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
B. Loftin
(TE)
o14.5 Receiving Yards
20.45 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.0
DIFFERENCE
23.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MSU
F. Moore
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
33.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.5
DIFFERENCE
18.35%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UCLA
W. Knight
(RB)
o18.5 Receiving Yards
20.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.2
DIFFERENCE
16.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MSU
R. Bullard Jr.
(WR)
u2.5 Receptions
2.29 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
3.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MSU
J. Savoury
(TE)
o3.5 Receptions
3.53 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-6.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MSU
C. McCray
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
2.96 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-8.46%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MSU
F. Moore
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
2.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-8.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UCLA
B. Loftin
(TE)
o1.5 Receptions
1.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-10.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
UCLA
S. Morgan
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
3.64 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-11.21%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
UCLA
A. Woods
(RB)
o8.5 Carries
9.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
10.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
MSU
A. Milivojevic
(QB)
o15.5 Completions
16.38 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
11.05%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Bruins are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Bruins are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 6-0 in Bruins last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 6-0 in Spartans last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Bruins are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 road games.
Under is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-0 in Bruins last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
ROI Trends
MSU vs UCLA Top User Picks
'vikings53098' is picking UCLA to cover (-15.5)
vikings53098 is #10 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.
'faustobone' is picking UCLA to cover (-15.5)
faustobone is #2 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (4-1-0) and +3950 units on the season.
'honestbender' is picking UCLA to cover (-14.5)
honestbender is #4 on picking games that Michigan State is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +3500 units on the season.
'JFT1010' is picking UCLA to cover (-13.5)
JFT1010 is #4 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (4-2-0) and +3900 units on the season.
'Makanikeoe' is picking UCLA to cover (-13.5)
Makanikeoe is #8 on picking games that UCLA is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +3000 units on the season.