LSU vs Auburn   Picks & Props

Jackson Harris averages 2.53 yards per route run and will capitalize on Auburn's 120th-ranked coverage grade (per PFF), so I'd play this number up to 60.5. Auburn operates at the fastest tempo in the nation (21.5 seconds per snap) and has a beatable secondary (87th in passing success rate), which is a great combination for opposing wideouts. 

Last week’s win over the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs absolutely raises the Auburn Tigers ceiling, but it took 26 Byrum Brown carries and three Gunner Stockton turnovers to pull it off. In addition to that, you're getting Auburn directly off one of its biggest wins in school history of recent memory. I'm not here to tell you that LSU is a better football team than Georgia but I will say its profile may be more suitable for this matchup.

LSU’s defense has held opponents to 4.35 yards per play and a 39.2% success rate, while Auburn’s unit ranks 31st in adjusted EPA allowed and gives up 5.15 yards per snap. LSU’s offense is good, but its opponent-adjusted efficiency ranks 25th rather than among the elite. Also, I still have not seen enough from Sam Leavitt to trust him making game-defining plays. I don't think his head coach has either. LSU can control field position and reach the low 30s. Auburn landing in the teens leaves enough room for Under 51.5.

Sam Leavitt owns a 55% passing success rate, giving LSU an efficient way to remain ahead of schedule and avoid settling for long field goals. Trey’Dez Green’s removal from the injury report also gives Kiffin his 6-foot-7 red-zone target back. Auburn can make LSU work through full drives, but it has not consistently produced the negative plays needed to keep those drives out of the end zone.