Texas A&M vs Alabama Picks & Props
TAM vs ALA Picks
NCAAF PicksAlabama's offense has struggled in its last two outings, but those came against two of the top defenses in the country. Against Texas A&M, I like Bama to hit its team total Over at 32.5 or better. In four previous P4 games against defenses ranked outside the top 25 by SP+, Alabama scored 45+ points.
Alabama is one of the best Over teams in the country, hitting it in five of seven games this season. I like the Crimson Tide to hit the Over again at 51.5 or better. Keelon Russell has Alabama ranked top 25 in offensive success rate (50.1%), and the Aggies' front seven is banged up. Texas A&M's offense is questionable, but Alabama's defense struggled against Tennessee last week, and the Aggies should be good enough to score 17+ points.
Alabama just lost a second straight regular-season game for the first time since 2007, but I still like the Crimson Tide to cover up to -16.5. Texas A&M is dealing with several key injuries and against teams ranked top 50 by SP+, the Aggies are 0-3 ATS and have been outscored by an average of 31-11. Alabama is ranked No. 12 by SP+.
Alabama could get off to a slow start after two straight losses, but its talent advantage, especially at QB, should help the Tide pull away in the second half. Texas A&M has been outscored by three ranked SEC teams 93-33 this season (0-3 ATS in those games).
TAM vs ALA Consensus Picks
62% picking Alabama
Total Picks TAM 146, ALA 241
TAM vs ALA Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
ALA
-13.5 spread
-13.99
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
-0.98%
EV
|
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|
TOTAL
Over
50.5 Total
50.87 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
7.32%
EV
|
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|
PASSING YARDS
TAM
M. Reed
(QB)
o174.5 Passing Yards
201.52 OVER
PROJECTION
+27.0
DIFFERENCE
27.14%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
ALA
K. Russell
(QB)
o25.5 Rushing Yards
34.96 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.5
DIFFERENCE
25.53%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
ALA
T. Brown
(RB)
o46.5 Rushing Yards
49.01 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.5
DIFFERENCE
6.89%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
TAM
R. Owens II
(RB)
o34.5 Rushing Yards
35.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
-30%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
TAM
T. Norman
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
56.37 OVER
PROJECTION
+26.9
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
TAM
I. Horton
(WR)
o35.5 Receiving Yards
47.10 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.6
DIFFERENCE
25.67%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
L. Brooks
(WR)
o59.5 Receiving Yards
62.99 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.5
DIFFERENCE
16.71%
EV
|
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|
RECEPTIONS
TAM
T. Norman
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
4.13 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.6
DIFFERENCE
16.74%
EV
|
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|
RECEPTIONS
TAM
I. Horton
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
3.51 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
6.42%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 5-0 in Aggies last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 in Aggies last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Aggies last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Over is 11-1 in Aggies last 12 games as a road favorite.
Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
ROI Trends
TAM vs ALA Top User Picks
'snuggles' is picking Alabama to cover (-15.5)
snuggles is #1 on picking games that Texas A&M is in with a record of (7-0-0) and +5950 units on the season.
'swtknguy' is picking Alabama to cover (-14.5)
swtknguy is #10 on picking games that Alabama is in with a record of (5-1-0) and +3900 units on the season.
'ezgoinguy34' is picking Alabama to cover (-13.5)
ezgoinguy34 is #10 on picking games that Texas A&M is in with a record of (4-3-0) and +3350 units on the season.
'etrain25' is picking Alabama to cover (-13.5)
etrain25 is #9 on picking games that Texas A&M is in with a record of (6-1-0) and +3350 units on the season.