USC vs Wisconsin Picks & Props
USC vs WIS Picks
NCAAF PicksUSC has scored 27+ points in six of seven games this season, and I like the Trojans team total Over at 27.5 or better. With Jayden Maiava at the helm, USC's offense is No. 2 in the country in pass success rate (57.7%) and No. 4 in EPA per drive.
This is a clash of styles, and I think USC's style of high-powered offense and zero defense will win the day. I like the Over at 50.5 or better, with USC averaging 31.2 PPG in Big Ten play, but giving up 26.5 PPG. While Wisconsin's offense is awful, USC's defense is worse and has held just one opponent below 21 points.
Coming off a bye week, I like USC to cover -2.5 or better. Wisconsin just lost by double digits to a UCLA team starting its backup QB for the first time. Jayden Maiava is a far more scary QB than Ty Dieffenbach and has the Trojans top 10 in the country in offensive success rate (51.6%).
My power ratings only make USC a one-point favorite. USC finally got a big win on the east coast, beating Penn State, but reality is, Wisconsin is better than Penn State, and yet the Penn State - USC line was a pick, so I think this line is a market overreaction. Wisconsin is also better in yards per play margin and they've faced a tough schedule.
USC has scored 27+ points in six of seven games this season, including on its last cross-country road trip. The Trojans have too much firepower to be stopped for four quarters by Wisconsin, ranking No. 2 in the country in net adjusted EPA per play. Eventually the Badgers defense will crack, and USC will pull away.
USC vs WIS Consensus Picks
USC vs WIS Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
SPREAD
|
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|
TOTAL
Under
50.0 Total
50.08 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
1.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
WIS
C. Joseph
(QB)
o174.5 Passing Yards
186.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.4
DIFFERENCE
21.05%
EV
|
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|
PASSING YARDS
USC
J. Maiava
(QB)
u255.5 Passing Yards
247.04 UNDER
PROJECTION
-8.5
DIFFERENCE
18.23%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
USC
K. Miller
(RB)
o66.5 Rushing Yards
78.13 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.6
DIFFERENCE
24.23%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
WIS
A. Sama III
(RB)
o39.5 Rushing Yards
52.07 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.6
DIFFERENCE
20.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
WIS
C. Joseph
(QB)
u52.5 Rushing Yards
49.50 UNDER
PROJECTION
-3.0
DIFFERENCE
19.16%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
USC
T. Hines
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
48.35 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.8
DIFFERENCE
27.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
USC
Z. Williams
(WR)
o27.5 Receiving Yards
37.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.8
DIFFERENCE
25.79%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
WIS
T. Henry
(WR)
o37.5 Receiving Yards
50.23 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.7
DIFFERENCE
25.61%
EV
|
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|
RECEIVING YARDS
WIS
C. Brooks Jr.
(WR)
o25.5 Receiving Yards
32.56 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.1
DIFFERENCE
24.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
USC
K. Dixon-Wyatt
(WR)
o36.5 Receiving Yards
40.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.1
DIFFERENCE
22.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
WIS
J. Harris
(TE)
o32.5 Receiving Yards
33.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
15.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
USC
T. Mosley
(WR)
o69.5 Receiving Yards
72.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.1
DIFFERENCE
13.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
USC
Z. Williams
(WR)
o1.5 Receptions
2.53 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
14.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
USC
K. Dixon-Wyatt
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions
2.94 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
9.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
WIS
T. Henry
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
3.63 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
9.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
WIS
C. Brooks Jr.
(WR)
u2.5 Receptions
2.16 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
7.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
USC
T. Mosley
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
5.05 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
4.71%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
WIS
J. Harris
(TE)
o2.5 Receptions
2.62 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-6.92%
EV
|
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|
RECEPTIONS
USC
T. Hines
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions
3.47 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-29.44%
EV
|
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|
CARRIES
WIS
A. Sama III
(RB)
o9.5 Carries
10.42 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
7.62%
EV
|
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|
CARRIES
USC
K. Miller
(RB)
o15.5 Carries
15.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-6.6%
EV
|
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|
COMPLETIONS
USC
J. Maiava
(QB)
o20.5 Completions
21.03 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
-1.09%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Under is 6-0 in Badgers last 6 games following a ATS win.
Under is 8-0 in Badgers last 8 games in October.
Under is 9-1 in Badgers last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 games in October.
Under is 6-1 in Trojans last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Trojans last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Over is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 games as an underdog.