Indiana @ Ohio State Picks & Props

Indiana has allowed some strong games to tight ends this season. And with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Take drawing major attention on the outside, Max Klare should benefit.

The Ohio State tight end has registered at least 30 receiving yards in just five games this season, but he’s caught at least four passes in six of his last eight. Julian Sayin has targeted his tight end 25 times over the past four games, with at least six in three of those contests.

I’m expecting Klare to have an uptick in usage here, especially with Sayin facing a stronger pass rush than usual.That will help the Buckeye tight end clear his total as he becomes an important part of the gameplan on Saturday.  

Jeremiah Smith is an amazing receiver, but D'Angelo Ponds knows how to deal with him.

He did so often in practice when the two were high school teammates, and last year he held him to just one catch for nine yards when they were matched up.

The Indiana corner has allowed just 120 receiving yards this season on 39 targets, and is one of the best lockdown corners in college football.

Smith has been held under 50 yards four times this season, including against Texas, and this presents a solid spot to cash his receiving yard Under for the third straight game. 

Ohio State ranks first in EPA/pass and have allowed just one quarterback to top 173 passing yards this year.

The Buckeyes have an elite secondary, and they're going to cause issues for Fernando Mendoza. The run game will struggle, and it will disrupt the RPO game that Mendoza thrives at operating.

And if he's forced to drop back further, the Hoosiers won't be able to properly protect him. They're allowing an extremly high sack rate on drop-backs of five steps or more this season.

Mendoza's numbers away from home are quite poor, with a 7:4 TD/INT and a completion rate that is nearly 18% lower. The Buckeyes will make things tough on him and hold him under 200 yards. 

Good luck finding a flaw in either Ohio State or Indiana. But when it comes to exceeding expectations, Ohio State does so far more often, winning against the spread in nine of its 10 games against Power Four competition this year, compared to just a 5-4 ATS record against Power Four foes for Indiana.

Jackson has gone for over 100 yards in three straight games, and will be a key weapon as Ohio State tries to punch through a stubborn Indiana defensive front.

The Buckeyes want to run the ball and dominate the clock. They limited Michigan to just 44 offensive snaps this weekend, and their run rate above expected is one of the highest in the nation.

In Penn State’s narrow defeat to the Hoosiers, the Nittany Lions ran the ball 33 times to help set up the play-action game. It led to multiple chunk completions, as Indiana allowed six throws of at least 15 yards on the day. 

It’s hard to see either team putting up consistent scoring. And if Ohio State gets the lead, it’s going to pound the rock and lean on the defense. That will keep this game in the 24-17 or 27-20 realm with the total going Under.

These two teams are near mirror images of one another on paper. But in terms of talent, there's a difference.

Ohio State has NFL players at nearly every position on the field, especially on defense. That defense became just the second in the modern era to hold every opponent below 17 points—and did so while covering the spread in 10 of 12 contests.

The Hoosiers are very good, but they give up too many explosive plays on defense and covered the spread just seven times. That's why I'll back the Buckeyes, who will rely on their run game and defense to hold onto the lead once they get it.