Texas @ Georgia Picks & Props

In five games with a one-possession spread this season, Georgia has trailed or been tied at halftime in all five games. Worse yet, the Bulldogs were favored in all five of those games and thus in all five of those first halves. Georgia's greatest strength this year has been halftime adjustments, something Texas can take advantage of for 30 minutes on Saturday.

With how both of these teams are able to hit explosive pass plays, I’m leaning Over. Georgia ranks in the Top 30 in explosive pass rate, 14th in pressure rate allowed, and fifth in yards after catch. 

Texas defends the run well, but Georgia can throw the ball enough to put up points. Just look at Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, who routinely connected on big pass plays downfield.

And as good as Georgia’s defense has been, Ole Miss showed you can find success against the Dawgs without running the ball. The Rebels repeatedly hit on big throws downfield as they scored 35 points.

While I don’t think this game will come close to the 78 points those teams combined for, I think we have a total that has dipped a bit too low. 

Arch Manning looks like a good quarterback again, and he's facing a Georgia defense that doesn't get after the quarterback as much as you'd think. The Bulldogs rank 114th in pressure rate and are allowing too many yards after the catch.

That's great news for Ryan Wingo, who has been hitting big plays of late and can go the distance anytime he touches the ball. He's part of a receiving corps that should put up numbers against a Georgia defense ranked 100th in EPA/pass and 74th in dropback success rate. 

Meanwhile, the Texas defense will cause some issues for a Georgia offense that relies on running the ball to keep third downs managable. 

I think Georgia is favored by too much here, and I'll take the Longhorns as long as I'm getting more than four points.