Auburn @ Oklahoma Picks & Props

Over the past decade, Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables’ name has been associated with one thing: defense. His success at Clemson was built on taking away the opponent’s biggest strength, forcing them to win differently. For Auburn, a major part of its offense is Arnold’s legs, so I expect the Sooners to focus on limiting him.

Arnold has topped this number only once, in a blowout win over Ball State when he ran for fewer than 10 yards. Oklahoma’s defense doesn’t have a glaring weakness, so this bet isn’t about matchup advantages. It’s about volume and game script. Auburn’s receivers are good enough to help him reach this mark if they’re playing from behind.

Auburn’s rushing defense hasn’t been tested much, yet its explosiveness rating sits around average even against weaker opponents. That’s a red flag with Oklahoma’s offense up next. Mateer has already proven he’s the Sooners’ go-to option near the goal line, and with Oklahoma favored to win, I expect multiple red-zone trips.

As the universal pandemic waiver has finally rolled off rosters, two things have again become more valuable than anything else in college football: veteran quarterbacks and experienced offensive lines. Both Oklahoma and Auburn have both of those perks, which should set up this SEC tilt for more offensive success than expected.

Auburn has improved this season, but this Oklahoma defense will overwhelm the Tigers and former Sooners' QB Jackson Arnold. OU enters this game leading the nation in defensive success rate and fourth in opponent yards per play. While current Sooners' QB John Mateer will do enough on offense to cover this spread.

These two offensive lines are too good to not produce some points. Side with Oklahoma to win, because of Brett Venables's defense, but also side with both John Mateer and Jaxson Arnold to find ways to put points on the board. This is rarely meant as a compliment, but there may not have been a matchup in the last decade with more "Johnny Football" vibes from both quarterbacks.