College Football Underdog Picks & Upset Predictions for Week 1
Free College Football Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game Sept. 3, 2026
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
11.82 |
+29.5 -109 |
o51.0 -148 |
+2500 |
|
|
41.70 |
-29.5 -105 |
u54.5 -115 |
-4000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
12.54 |
+27.5 -104 |
o49.5 -126 |
+2000 |
|
|
36.85 |
-27.5 -108 |
u51.5 -120 |
-2800 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
22.04 |
+7.0 -110 |
o51.0 -112 |
+210 |
|
|
29.99 |
-7.0 -110 |
u51.5 -105 |
-235 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
14.55 |
+27.5 -105 |
o53.5 -115 |
+1850 |
|
|
42.09 |
-27.5 +100 |
u54.5 -102 |
-4000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
25.68 |
+3.5 -108 |
o55.5 -110 |
+140 |
|
|
29.72 |
-3.5 +105 |
u56.5 -110 |
-145 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
19.22 |
+10.5 -110 |
o45.0 -120 |
+340 |
|
|
27.57 |
-10.5 +100 |
u47.5 -110 |
-400 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.08 |
+41.5 -108 |
o51.5 -110 |
-- |
|
|
45.71 |
-41.5 +100 |
u52.5 -120 |
-- |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
35.53 |
-21.5 -110 |
o47.5 -105 |
-2500 |
|
|
13.15 |
+21.5 -110 |
u48.0 -114 |
+1400 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
15.23 |
+23.5 -112 |
o51.5 -110 |
+1400 |
|
|
36.85 |
-23.5 -108 |
u51.5 -105 |
-1786 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
22.07 |
+6.5 -105 |
o50.5 -105 |
+200 |
|
|
30.06 |
-6.5 -105 |
u50.5 -108 |
-222 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
12.96 |
+24.5 -110 |
o45.5 -113 |
+1600 |
|
|
34.76 |
-24.5 -110 |
u47.5 -115 |
-2500 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
13.85 |
+21.5 -115 |
o49.5 -110 |
+1000 |
|
|
35.06 |
-21.5 +100 |
u49.5 -108 |
-1400 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
12.90 |
+28.5 -115 |
o52.5 -108 |
+3000 |
|
|
39.14 |
-28.5 +100 |
u52.5 -108 |
-5000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
10.08 |
+40.5 -108 |
o55.5 -108 |
+15000 |
|
|
49.02 |
-40.5 +100 |
u57.5 -115 |
-- |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
18.06 |
+21.5 -110 |
o55.5 -110 |
+1000 |
|
|
38.01 |
-21.5 -105 |
u56.5 -112 |
-1500 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
16.15 |
+16.5 -105 |
o47.5 -110 |
+600 |
|
|
33.25 |
-16.5 -105 |
u48.0 -109 |
-752 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
0.83 |
+50.5 -110 |
o56.0 -110 |
+8000 |
|
|
52.94 |
-50.5 -108 |
u56.5 -108 |
-100000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
8.91 |
+36.5 -110 |
o53.5 -110 |
+5000 |
|
|
44.03 |
-36.5 -105 |
u54.5 -110 |
-100000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
22.72 |
+7.5 -108 |
o50.5 -115 |
+260 |
|
|
30.77 |
-7.5 -109 |
u51.5 -115 |
-300 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
14.23 |
+25.5 -110 |
o51.5 -108 |
+1800 |
|
|
38.65 |
-25.5 -110 |
u51.5 -109 |
-2500 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
16.41 |
+30.5 -115 |
o59.0 -114 |
+3000 |
|
|
44.72 |
-30.5 -105 |
u60.5 -120 |
-5000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
15.43 |
+24.5 -110 |
o52.0 -110 |
+1500 |
|
|
39.24 |
-24.5 +100 |
u52.5 -110 |
-2000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
24.20 |
+8.0 -112 |
o58.5 -110 |
+250 |
|
|
32.85 |
-8.0 -108 |
u59.5 -115 |
-290 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
21.35 |
+8.5 -131 |
o49.0 -114 |
+250 |
|
|
30.20 |
-8.5 -102 |
u50.5 -115 |
-295 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
33.23 |
-13.5 -110 |
o58.5 -110 |
-550 |
|
|
22.59 |
+13.5 +100 |
u59.5 -115 |
+460 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.96 |
+31.5 -110 |
o44.5 -108 |
+5000 |
|
|
37.86 |
-31.5 -105 |
u44.5 -105 |
-50000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
20.27 |
+3.5 -115 |
o45.5 -113 |
+146 |
|
|
23.30 |
-3.5 +105 |
u46.5 -110 |
-152 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
19.56 |
+15.5 -115 |
o51.5 -105 |
+525 |
|
|
35.38 |
-15.5 -105 |
u53.5 -128 |
-649 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
7.72 |
+41.0 -110 |
o53.5 -110 |
+15000 |
|
|
47.49 |
-41.0 -108 |
u53.5 -105 |
-- |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
17.18 |
+17.5 -115 |
o51.5 -130 |
+625 |
|
|
34.75 |
-17.5 -102 |
u56.5 -156 |
-800 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
19.87 |
+12.5 -110 |
o52.0 -113 |
+380 |
|
|
32.10 |
-12.5 -110 |
u53.5 -115 |
-450 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
10.42 |
+28.5 -115 |
o48.5 -110 |
+2000 |
|
|
36.44 |
-28.5 -108 |
u50.0 -115 |
-4000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
13.19 |
+29.5 -116 |
o53.5 -132 |
+2500 |
|
|
42.14 |
-29.5 -106 |
u55.0 -114 |
-4500 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
19.11 |
+10.5 -115 |
o50.5 -110 |
+325 |
|
|
28.38 |
-10.5 +100 |
u50.5 -105 |
-375 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
16.55 |
+26.5 -105 |
o59.5 -105 |
+1800 |
|
|
41.83 |
-26.5 -110 |
u59.5 -110 |
-3448 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
17.16 |
+11.5 -110 |
o46.5 -106 |
+375 |
|
|
28.53 |
-11.5 -110 |
u50.0 -175 |
-441 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
29.52 |
-1.5 -110 |
o55.5 -108 |
-150 |
|
|
27.38 |
+1.5 -110 |
u56.5 -110 |
+135 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
25.98 |
+0.0 -120 |
o49.5 -164 |
-114 |
|
|
24.31 |
+1.0 -108 |
u52.5 -110 |
+100 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
25.99 |
+0.0 -128 |
o53.5 -105 |
-122 |
|
|
26.34 |
+0.0 +104 |
u53.5 -108 |
+110 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
12.73 |
+23.5 -105 |
o50.5 -110 |
+1300 |
|
|
36.20 |
-31.5 +231 |
u51.5 -115 |
-2000 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
11.90 |
+20.5 -105 |
o45.5 -125 |
+1100 |
|
|
34.47 |
-20.5 -105 |
u47.5 -110 |
-1408 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
24.06 |
+7.5 -120 |
o55.0 -114 |
+225 |
|
|
31.33 |
-7.5 +105 |
u56.5 -136 |
-250 |
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
Spread |
Total |
ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
27.65 |
-2.5 -120 |
o52.5 -115 |
-148 |
|
|
25.50 |
+2.5 +105 |
u53.5 -110 |
+135 |
Wake Forest is a -24.5 favorite, so Kalshi expects a one-sided game, and blowouts are where Overs go to die. Teams usually take their foot off the gas in the second half when they are up big, and the clock keeps running.
Colorado enters this matchup as an attractive underdog against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets must replace a superstar quarterback and both coordinators, while Colorado brings in a new offensive coordinator and a talented group of returning playmakers. Redshirt freshman Julian Lewis takes over at quarterback and will have Danny Scudero, Kam Perry, DeAndre Moore Jr. and Ernest Campbell at his disposal. That group combined for 3,560 receiving yards and 28 touchdowns in 2025. With Georgia Tech facing significant losses, Colorado has enough firepower to stay within the number.
These were two of the worst defenses in the Power Four last season, both ranking outside the Top 80 in EPA per pass and EPA per rush. With Georgia Tech adding Justice Haynes, he should thrive in the Yellow Jackets run-first offense (he averaged 3.77 yards per carry after contact last season). Colorado's additions at receiver will help Julian Lewis pressure a defense that was 114th in EPA per pass in 2025.
The Missouri Tigers will win by margin again Thursday because they have one of the best backfields in the nation, featuring All-American RB Ahmad Hardy and RB Jamal Roberts, and this should be a “stat-padding” game for their defense. Missouri’s defense will be motivated to get a shutout at home because it has just three returning starters, so there is a lot of opportunity, and this is a chance to ball out before getting lit up in SEC play later this season.
Last week, Idaho allowed 38 points and 516 yards to Cal Poly. This week, it takes on an FBS offense that returns one of the top QBs in the country, Devon Dampier. Dampier and Co. could lead Utah to 50+ points behind the Utes' run game. And as long as Idaho hits double digits, the Over will be in good shape. Vandals QB Joshua Wood's dual-threat ability should help.
Despite Kyle Whittingham being gone, Utah is in decent shape continuity-wise, especially on offense. Star dual-threat QB Devon Dampier leads what should once again be one of the nation's top run games (11th in EPA per rush in 2025). Idaho is coming off a tough last-second loss to Cal Poly, in which it gave up 516 yards and 38 points.
San Jose State quarterback Luke Weaver looked the part against a USC defense that was expected to be much improved, completing 65.5% of his passes for 234 yards and two touchdowns. Now, he gets an Eastern Michigan defense that allowed Sacramento State’s quarterback to throw for more than 220 yards while completing just 54.3% of his passes. The Eagles allowed 30 points and more than 410 yards per game last season, and while six starters return, this unit still has plenty to prove. If Weaver can replicate his success against a Power Four defense, the Spartans should have no trouble finding success against Eastern Michigan.
Purdue will probably smoke Indiana State on Friday, and blowouts are where Overs go to die. Coaches won't waste the "good plays" in the second half if they are up big.
Defenses keep playing hard because the backups want to stand out, the losing side doesn't want to get embarrassed any further, and both teams just want to go home.
Purdue is 4-1 to the Under in its past five games as a favorite, which is rare since it'll most likely be an underdog in every Big Ten game this season. That tells me the Boilermakers like bullying weaker teams.
Oklahoma to cover the first-half spread is one of my favorite bets on the Week 1 slate, and I expect the Sooners to come out firing. John Mateer returns fully healthy after an injury held him back last season, giving Oklahoma a quarterback who was making a legitimate Heisman Trophy case before the injury affected his play.
On the other side, Brent Venables has another loaded defense, led by an extremely talented secondary and one of the SEC’s best edge rushers in Taylor Wein.
I expect the Sooners to control this game from the start and cover the first-half spread.
Stanford's offense looked more competent than it has in years against Hawaii in Week 0. Davis Warren's steady play should help the Cardinal score 10+ points, and Miami can do the rest for the Over. The Hurricanes added one of the best QBs in the country, Darian Mensah, to an offense that returns Malachi Toney and Mark Fletcher Jr. Miami's offense is projected to be ranked 12th by SP+.
Fresno went 5-8 O/U in Matt Entz' inaugural campaign, and there should be more low-scoring contests ahead given the salty, experienced defense and the ground-heavy offensive approach. The Bulldogs will try to lean on backs Rayshon Luke and Bryson Donelson, which will keep the clock ticking.
This is a poor stylistic matchup for Fresno - the one-dimensional offensive attack isn't designed to play from behind. Jayden Mandal has thrown 9 career passes, and 2 of those have been picked off, so Fresno simply won't keep up with Jayden Maiava and this elite USC offense.
Alabama can dominate this game without the total ever becoming particularly threatened.
The Tide still have offensive questions of their own. Alabama ranked 125th nationally in rushing at 104.1 yards per game last season and produced just 48 rushing yards across its final three games. Russell is also making his first collegiate start behind an offensive line replacing several pieces.
That could keep Alabama from immediately turning every possession into points.
The bigger issue for the Over is East Carolina. Almost every meaningful contributor from an offense that averaged nearly 33 points per game is gone, and the Pirates now have to break in a new quarterback against one of the best secondaries in the country.
Alabama Head Coach Kalen DeBoer received a contract extension, but that doesn’t eliminate the pressure surrounding this program. The Tide fanbase remains restless after falling short of the standard it expects, and another sluggish opening-week performance would immediately turn up the temperature. East Carolina returns just one offensive starter after losing quarterback Katin Houser, its top two rushers, four of its five leading receivers, and several important pieces up front. That is an enormous amount of turnover before facing an Alabama defense that allowed just 297 yards and 19.2 points per game last season. Bama' also have an enormous talent advantage on the perimeter against a rebuilt Pirates secondary.
Tulane named Zeon Chriss-Gremillion the starting quarterback, meaning you should expect a run-heavy approach from the offense. With lead back Jamauri McClure banged up and considered questionable for this contest, the onus is on the QB run game against a Duke defense that could only be described as "atrocious" a year ago.
Tulane beat Duke last season and has more continuity than expected with Will Hall taking over after serving on last year’s staff. Duke won the ACC despite being outgained on the season and then unexpectedly lost starting QB Darian Mensah. My power ratings make Tulane +6.5, providing value through the key number of 7.
Oregon's offense upgraded from last year as they look very strong at wide receiver and running back. This matches up well with a Boise State defense that's been downgraded. Whenever you have a massive spread, you need to look at the backups. I'd argue that Oregon has the best backup QB in the country in Dylan Raiola who was a two-year starter at Nebraska, so I think Oregon will continue to score if they're up big in the second half. On the other side, Boise State has one of the most experienced QBs in the country who should help contribute to the scoring.
DJ Vonnahme is next up for Tight End U after averaging 74.2 receiving yards through the final five games of the season, capped by a 146-yard performance against Vanderbilt in the ReliaQuest Bowl. He leads all returning tight ends in yards per route run (3.10) and is a bona fide NFL prospect, and I'd keep playing this to 38.5.
USF returns only three starters, but Brian Hartline brought in the best transfer class in the Group of Six, including 24 former Power Four players. FIU added just six Power Four transfers who combined for 41 snaps last season. The talent gap is significant, and my power ratings make USF -14.5.
Although LSU is the more talented team, the Tigers' lack of continuity could lead to a slow start. Of the 44 players in Lane Kiffin's two-deep, 28 of them are new to the program. Clemson's defense has plenty of NFL talent and should take advantage of the newness on LSU's offense. A low-scoring first half can keep this game close in Death Valley before LSU pulls away late. But this spread is slightly too big for me to back Kiffin's Tigers.
UCLA defensive coordinator Colin Hitschler's scheme often involves leaving corners on islands while bringing the heat, and that'll be a tough ask for the secondary against Ian Stron when Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is throwing him the ball.
Notre Dame is arguably the most talented team in the country and ranks No. 1 nationally in returning production (72%). The Fighting Irish have a Heisman contender at QB and a defense full of NFL talent, including the country's best secondary. Luke Fickell's team is heavily relying on transfers, and if Old Dominion's Colton Joseph isn't at his best, the Badgers won't keep this close at Lambeau. Wisconsin was 122nd in SP+ on offense last season.
Jeff Brohm has built a reputation for getting the most out of his teams in big games, especially against ranked opponents. The Louisville head coach is 27-15 against the spread with 20 outright wins as an underdog dating back to his time at Purdue. Ole Miss should be just as good, if not better, than last season, but the Rebels enter with far more pressure. Louisville quarterback Lincoln Kienholz also brings plenty of upside, and Brohm has a history of maximizing his quarterbacks. Expect this one to be close.
Mississippi loses five of its top six pass catchers. Gone are 225 receptions for 3,388 yards and 19 touchdowns, and Deuce Alexander is the WR1 to step up into big-time production for star quarterback Trinidad Chambliss.
Florida State’s ugly performance against New Mexico State has me officially putting Mike Norvell on the hate list. The Seminoles allowed a Diego Pavia-less Aggies team to rack up more than 300 total yards, throw for more than 270 yards and convert 10 of 17 third downs. While some may chalk it up to a look-ahead spot, Florida State looked far too unprepared for me to buy it. SMU has plenty of tape on those early flaws and should have the talent to exploit them. I’m taking the Mustangs on the moneyline rather than laying points in this early-season matchup.
Florida State looked like one of the least prepared teams to take the field in Week 0. The Seminoles struggled with a G6 bottom-feeder at home (New Mexico State) and now must deal with an SMU team that's ranked in the Top 25 nationally in returning production (62%). SMU was 12th in EPA per rush on defense last year and can slow FSU's run-first approach. The Mustangs' offense is in even better shape with QB Kevin Jennings behind one of the ACC's most experienced O-lines.
Former Mississippi head coach Lane Kiffin will take his new team, LSU, into Oxford. Considering the controversial way he left the Rebels prior to the playoffs last year, there might not be a more hostile environment in college football this season. It’s a game worthy of giving the home team more than three points of home-field advantage.
Our experts and prediction models are hard at work analyzing the data. Check back shortly for today's picks, or explore our Computer Picks for inspiration.
The table above lets you know how profitable and helpful our sports betting computer picks have been across the last 100 college football games played. Our NCAAF computer picks use expert data to review odds and generate moneyline, spread, and total bets for every game throughout the season.
Listed in the table are unit details, which show the total profit or loss based on a bettor placing $100 on each of the last 100 college football picks made by the computer, on both the opening and closing lines.
Take advantage of these free college football picks before you wager any money at sportsbooks.
As human beings, we're bound to be biased with our picks and potentially fall into the trap of swinging with the public. With advanced stats growing in popularity and getting harder to track, college football computer predictions are starting to become more relied on.
Betting on a moneyline simply means you're picking the outright winner of the game, regardless of the scoring margin or total. If the team you choose wins, then your bet hits. Here's what it will look like over at your favorite sportsbook:
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide | -120 |
| Missouri Tigers | +150 |
In this case, Alabama is favored to win the game as its moneyline odds have a minus sign (-) in front of the number. The favorites will have the minus sign present, and the underdogs will have a plus sign (+). Easy, right?
Betting the spread gives your bet a bit more breathing room. Here, you don't need to sweat out a team to win. Instead, you can wager on the point differential on the scoreboard.
Betting on the spread is a good idea when the moneyline profits aren't enticing. There's no point betting on Alabama as a heavy -1500 favorite over Missouri. But taking Missouri to keep the scoring margin within a certain frame will get you more bang for your buck.
| Team | Spread |
|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide | -24.5 (-105) |
| Missouri Tigers | +24.5 (-115) |
In this example, the Tide are favored to dominate their game against Missouri, outperforming them by at least 24.5 points.
If Alabama does win by more than 25 points, that would mean the Crimson Tide covered the spread. But if the Tide won by just 20 points, then that would mean the Tigers "covered the spread" instead.
If you think the outcome of a game could flip in either direction, then an Over/Under is the way to go. This bet relies on the combined score from both teams and whether it goes Over or Under the point total listed at sportsbooks. Then, who cares who wins?
| Team | Total |
|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide | O 52.5 (-110) |
| Missouri Tigers | U 52.5 (-110) |
In this example, oddsmakers have set the total score for the game at 52.5 points. The choice is now up to you. If you think the Tide and Tigers will score a combined total of more than 52.5 points, 53 points or more, then pick the Over. If you're thinking otherwise, then bet the Under, and the bet will hit if they score fewer than 52.5 points.
If the set number was a whole number like 52 points and the two teams score exactly that amount, then it is considered a push and you'd get your money back.
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