Washington @ Los Angeles picks

The Sparks have a travel edge, homecourt advantage and the best player in the game against the worst defense in the league. Do not overthink this.

Since Shakira Austin picked up more minutes in the Mystics' rotation — a precaution taken solely due to injuries last season — she has cleared this prop in six of nine games since June 20. One of those exceptions came in a tight road win on Sunday. That game became a worry when Seattle won the third quarter 27-16. Related: Austin played only three minutes in the third, lowering her to just 23 minutes in the game. Washington should play Austin more, all evidence continues to make that clear.

No one gives up a worse 3-point percentage from opponents than the Mystics' 29.8%. That should scare off any bets on 3-point Overs from the Sparks tonight, right? Wrong. Kelsey Plum has faced the next two such defenses three times in the last two-plus weeks, going 10-of-19 from deep against the Lynx and the Fever (twice). She cleared this prop in each game.