San Antonio @ Miami Picks & Props

Chris Paul has made 2.4 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 0.7 more than he's converted from 3-point range in all games this season. Among all players in the league, Chris Paul measures in the 75th percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 29.3 minutes per game this year. Over the last 10 games, the opposing team's starting PGs have registered 23.1 points per game (4th-most in the NBA) vs. the Heat, labeling this as a strong matchup for offensive performance. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Spurs grade out 10th-best in in the NBA when playing away from home with 11.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games. Chris Paul has made 2.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.1 higher than he's made overall this season while on the road.

The matchup against San Antonio is a hard one; when the Spurs are away from home, they have allowed the least points per game in the league to opposing starting SFs this year (8.6). The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the league with the home court advantage this year. Offensive rebounds save possession and create extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat grade out 1stworst in in the league while at home with just 8.4 offensive boards per game this year.

Duncan Robinson has successfully made 3.0 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.6 more than he's made from downtown in all games this year while at home. This year when they are on their home court, the opposition's starting SGs have shot 54.7% on field goal attempts (2nd-best in the league) vs. the Spurs, identifying this as a positive matchup. Duncan Robinson has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 11.1% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the season. In regard to getting to the charity stripe, the Miami Heat's stellar 23.3 free throws per game while playing at home comes in as the 6th-best in the league this year. This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 3.2 free throws per game (8th-highest in the league) vs. the Spurs, making it fairly effortless to draw fouls.

The Spurs have been the 9th-lowest scoring offense in the league without the home court advantage this year. The Spurs are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from squaring off against the 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play home team in the league this year (the Heat). Devin Vassell will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage tends to lower player production across the board.

Harrison Barnes has sunk 54.7% of his field goals over the last 5 games on the road, 14.9% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this year away from his home court. Harrison Barnes has been called for 1.0 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the lowest-fouling players in the league (19th percentile). The matchup against Miami is a good one for three-pointers; when the Miami Heat have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting PFs have put up the highest 3-point rate in the NBA this year (46.4%). Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Spurs grade out 10th-best in in the NBA when playing away from home with 11.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games. Harrison Barnes has converted 3.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 higher than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the league with the home court advantage this year. Offensive rebounds save possession and create extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat grade out 1stworst in in the league while at home with just 8.4 offensive boards per game this year.

Out of all players in the NBA, Stephon Castle lands in the 21st percentile for 3-point effectiveness when playing away from home with a bad 23.7% rate this year. The Spurs have been the 9th-lowest scoring offense in the league without the home court advantage this year. The Spurs are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from squaring off against the 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play home team in the league this year (the Heat). Stephon Castle will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling tends to worsen player production in all stat categories.

Haywood Highsmith has attempted 4.8 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 higher than he's attempted in all games this season. In regard to getting to the charity stripe, the Miami Heat's stellar 23.3 free throws per game while playing at home comes in as the 6th-best in the league this year. Over the last 24 games when they have the home court advantage, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 3.9 foul shots per game (4th-highest in the league) against the San Antonio Spurs, finding it easy to get to the free-throw line. Haywood Highsmith will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home stadium usually improves player production across the board.

Among all players in the NBA, Victor Wembanyama slots into the 96th percentile for shots taken on the road, registering 18.9 per game this year. Out of all players in the NBA, Victor Wembanyama registers in the 89th percentile for playing time, logging a colossal 33.2 minutes per game this year. The showdown with Bam Adebayo lands in the 100th percentile with the opposition's starting Cs sinking a whopping 47.2% of their treys this year. Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Spurs grade out 10th-best in in the NBA when playing away from home with 11.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

Out of all players in the league, Bam Adebayo comes in at the 85th percentile for playing time, logging a massive 32.1 minutes per game at home this year. The number of field goal attempts against Victor Wembanyama has been remarkably high (12.9 per game) when defending opposing starting Cs this year (100th percentile). Bam Adebayo has sunk 4.4 foul shots per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.3 higher than he's made in all games this season playing at home. In regard to getting to the charity stripe, the Miami Heat's stellar 23.3 free throws per game while playing at home comes in as the 6th-best in the league this year. Bam Adebayo ought to see an increase in productivity for all stats as a result of controlling the home court advantage in this game.

Nikola Jović has gone over 10.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Terry Rozier has gone over 10.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Jaime Jaquez has gone over 6.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Keldon Johnson has gone over 11.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Julian Champagnie has gone over 8.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Tre Jones has gone over 3.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Kel'el Ware has gone over 6.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.