NBA Picks

The San Antonio Spurs’ 11-game, fool’s gold win streak will be snapped today as they face their toughest matchup of the last month. San Antonio delivered a big win over the Detroit Pistons, but otherwise, their recent wins have come against shorthanded squads and teams headed for the lottery. 

The New York Knicks are healthy aside from Miles McBride’s absence, and they get home court advantage after three games on the road. The Knicks are 22-8 straight up and a league-best 19-11 ATS at home. New York has won and covered in its only game as the home underdog.

The Spurs are expected to experience a decrease in possessions today from sharing the court with the 4th-most sluggish tempo home offense in the league over the last 10 games (the New York Knicks).. The Spurs rank as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

While the Nets have struggled all season long, their current seven-game losing streak is among their lowest points of the year. They’ve also lost every game against the spread in that span, even failing to cover four times as a 10+ point underdog. I'm taking the Cavaliers to add to that streak by covering in Brooklyn this afternoon.

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and create additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Cleveland Cavaliers rank 8th-best in the NBA when playing away from home with 12.4 offensive boards per game this year.. The matchup vs. Brooklyn is a good one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a colossal 3.9 foul shots per game this year when the Brooklyn Nets are playing at home (10th-most in the league).

The Timberwolves and Nuggets have cashed the Over in three of the last four head-to-head matchups. 

The Minnesota Timberwolves check in as the highest scoring offense in the league away from home this year.. The 6th-fastest tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Minnesota Timberwolves.. The Timberwolves are expected to see an increase in plays today from sharing the court with the 4th-quickest tempo offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Denver Nuggets).

Milwaukee is still outside the play-in spots, but the supporting cast has rallied impressively lately. The Bucks are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games – and they’ve covered the spread in each of those victories. But this pick is equally about Chicago’s miserable form. With a growing injury report and an eye on the draft, the Bulls are 1-9 ATS in their past 10 outings. Milwaukee leads the season series 3-0, with all of those wins coming by a margin of 9+ points, and I’m laying the points with the visitors, who’ve picked up three straight Ws on their travels.

The Bucks rank as the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year.. The Chicago Bulls have played at the 5th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Bucks.. This year when they are away from home, opposing starting SFs have attempted 5.1 free throws per game (highest in the league) against the Bulls, finding it easy to get to the free-throw line.

This year when they are on their home court, opposing starting PGs have tallied 17.0 points per game (8th-lowest in the league) vs. the Grizzlies, identifying this as a tough matchup for offensive output.. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 2ndworst in in the league with only 8.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 2ndworst in in the league with only 8.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

Portland is one of the best cover teams playing on consecutive nights, going 8-4-0 against the spread this season.

The Hawks have been the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Detroit remains elite defensively, but Orlando ranks 12th in defensive efficiency over that same span and has the size to compete inside. 

In a slower-paced game, getting five points at home carries real weight, and I am in on the Magic covering the still-inflated spread.  

 

As it relates to 3-point attempts, the 3rd-least aggressive team in the league while playing on the road this year has been the Detroit Pistons.. The Orlando Magic have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Detroit Pistons.

Tyrese Maxey has been on a heater, and I expect his elite scoring to continue on the road against a familiar opponent. Maxey has scored 27+ in eight straight games, including five straight on the road. He’s reached that mark in 39 of 57 games overall and 21 of 27 away from Philadelphia. He's also gone for 40, 33, and 32 across his last three matchups at TD Garden. 

This year when they are on their home court, the other team's starting PGs have shot 39.9% on three-pointers (7th-best in the NBA) against the Philadelphia 76ers, resulting in a favorable matchup.. The Boston Celtics are expected to see an increase in possessions in this contest from being pitted against the 5th-speediest pace offense in the league over the last 5 games (the 76ers).. The Boston Celtics rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league as the home team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).. The matchup against Philadelphia is a positive one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted an enormous 4.9 foul shots per game this year when the 76ers are the visiting team (8th-most in the league).

Naturally, we think of OKC first for defense, but SGA and Co. also boast the league’s third-most prolific offense at 119.5 PPG, so I’m buying into a shootout. The Over is 8-2 in the Thunder’s last 10 contests, and it’s 16-11 this year when OKC is a road favorite. Shai’s return shifts the visitors’ rotation back into more natural roles, and they’re facing a Dallas squad that’s allowed 120+ points in eight of its past nine outings. Sure, the Mavs’ injuries put a dent in their playmaking, but they’ve still hit the Over in three of their last four games.

Oklahoma City has covered four of its last five and continues to play with energy on both ends. The Thunder force turnovers, push tempo, and keep scoring even when the bench is in. With Dallas thin and struggling to defend consistently, OKC is in a good spot to win comfortably and cover the number.

Saddiq Bey will be the main man for the Pelicans tonight. with three other starters likely out.

He averaged 10 assists plus rebounds in February, notching Over 8.5 in four of his last six. The Clippers will clamp down on Bey defensively, but he'll still make an impact in other ways.

With respect to offense, the Pelicans's lackluster 112.5 points per game when playing on the road ranks 7th-worst in the NBA this year.. This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PFs have averaged 0.9 three-pointers per game (lowest in the NBA) vs. the LA Clippers, making this a difficult matchup.. The New Orleans Pelicans are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from sharing the court with the 2nd-most sluggish pace home offense in the NBA this year (the LA Clippers).

The Sacramento Kings check in as the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.. The Lakers have played at the 6th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which should reduce plays for the Kings.

Precious Achiuwa has totaled 17.0 points per game over the last 5 games, 8.9 more than he's totaled overall this year.. This year, the opposition's starting PFs have tallied 5.6 3-point attempts per game (most in the NBA) against the Lakers, designating this as a positive matchup.. The Sacramento Kings have played at the 10th-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games as the away team.. The Kings rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games as the away team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).