NBA Picks

Desmond Bane is third on the Magic in scoring and has cashed the Over in four of his last five appearances, posting 30+ points in three of those. While he scored just 17 in his most recent game against the Pistons, Bane erupted for 30 just two days prior against the Rockets. 

 

In terms of offense, the Wizards's lackluster 110.1 points per game away from their home court comes in as the 5th-weakest in the league this year.. The Wizards will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this game from being pitted against the 4th-slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Orlando Magic).

When it comes to shooting, the Dallas Mavericks's outstanding 49.8% field goal percentage ranks 2nd-strongest in the league over the last 5 games.. The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home court.

The Mavericks have played at the 2nd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home city, which ought to increase possessions for the Hornets.. The Hornets check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Cleveland will lean on its elite defense to compete. These head-to-head battles usually turn into low-scoring wars, which is why the Under is the play tonight.

The Heat have Tyler Herro (21.0 points per game) back in the lineup, further widening the talent gap between these teams. Brooklyn is by far the lowest-scoring team in the league and won’t keep up with Miami tonight.

As it relates to three-point attempts, the 7th-most aggressive team in the NBA as the away team this year has been the Nets.. This year, the opposition's starting SGs have tallied 6.3 3-point attempts per game (highest in the NBA) against the Heat, creating a positive matchup.. The Heat have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should boost plays for the Brooklyn Nets.. The matchup against Miami is a good one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted a monstrous 3.4 foul shots per game this year when the Heat have the home court advantage (9th-most in the league).

The New York Knicks have beaten the Raptors in all three meetings so far this season, and this one will end the same way. The Knicks have too much depth and scoring punch for the Raptors to overcome. They are playing some good basketball right now, winning four of their last five games. Take the team that feels like a true contender in this spot. 

Rudy Gobert has fallen short of this prop in the Minnesota Timberwolves’ last three games. Then why boldly take it now? Because Gobert has continued to thrive on the boards, averaging 15.7 rebounds in those three games. And more often than not, his rebounding leads to putback opportunities.

Donte DiVincenzo has been shooting with a ton of confidence over his last three games, knocking down 14 of 29 attempts from deep—just under 50% on high volume. That hot shooting should continue against the Memphis Grizzlies, where he’s set up to see plenty of wide-open looks playing off the gravity of Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle. Memphis simply doesn’t have the individual defenders to consistently contain either star, which forces help and creates space on the perimeter. DiVincenzo thrives as a relocator in the half court, and that skill should pay off against a young, inexperienced Grizzlies defense. On top of that, Memphis likes to play with pace, which should generate additional transition opportunities and easy jumpers. With the over 12.5 points priced at +100—well below my fair price of -155—this number is too good to pass up.

 

De’Aaron Fox is trading at +100 for the over 15.5 points, and that number is far too generous given that I price it closer to -195. This is easily my favorite prop on the board. With Joel Embiid out, the 76ers are expected to start Andre Drummond at center, and that immediately creates a problem. Drummond is forced to play a deep drop because of his limited lateral quickness, a coverage Fox should punish all night with open mid-range jumpers. If Drummond tries to step up, Fox has the elite speed to blow by him and get to the rim. On top of that, with both Embiid and Paul George unavailable, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe are shouldering a massive offensive workload. It’s difficult to ask them to be primary creators and then also contain one of the fastest guards in the league on the defensive end. That combination makes this number simply too low.

 

The 76ers’ defensive rating without Joel Embiid is a dreadful 117.1.

Luke Kornet is averaging a career-best 15.5 PRA, and he’s gone for 12+ in 38 of 50 games overall, including six of his last nine. This line is wildly mispriced, and Kornet could see additional run if San Antonio runs away with the game in this favorable matchup.

OKC boasts the league’s No. 1 Defensive Rating and covers 57% of their road games. Facing a "tanking" Bulls “G-League” roster, the Thunder’s elite defensive efficiency and transition offense should pull away for a double-digit cover.

The Thunder have been the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.. The Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to see a rise in opportunities today from facing the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Bulls).. The matchup against the Chicago Bulls may be a positive one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 5.9 free throws per game over the last 5 games (4th-most in the league).

LeBron James is trading at +122 for the over 6.5 assists, and that price is too good to pass up given that I price it closer to -145. The Pelicans are expected to start DeAndre Jordan as their primary rim protector, and at 37 years old, he’s forced to play a deep drop coverage because he simply doesn’t have the mobility he once did. That style of coverage gives a player with LeBron’s basketball IQ far too much space and time to read the floor and find passing lanes. Add in New Orleans’ issues defending in transition, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see LeBron pile up several easy assists by leveraging his vision against a defense with limited rim protection and slow recovery.

The Los Angeles Lakers rank as the 6th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games as the home team.. The Lakers are expected to get a boost in possessions in this game from facing the 8th-quickest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).

The Phoenix Suns hit the road after playing eight of nine at home, while the Sacramento Kings are back home after five straight on the road. Phoenix is just 3-6-1 ATS across its last 10, and the Kings will be motivated to avoid the season sweep by a division rival after dropping three straight to Phoenix. The team with the fewest wins in the Association can complete the upset as the double-digit home dog, making this a calculated, home-run wager.

The Sacramento Kings are missing Domantas Sabonis and Dylan Cardwell, which means Maxime Raynaud will see ample playing time, leading to a productive night as a scorer and rebounder. Raynaud has 12 double-doubles on the season, and four of them have come across his last six outings.