NBA Picks

It’s the second night of a back-to-back for the Phoenix Suns, but not all back-to-backs are created equal—and this one definitely falls into that category. The Suns blew out the Brooklyn Nets on the road on Monday, with Devin Booker and Jalen Green both playing 25 minutes or fewer. They’ll also have two key pieces available on Tuesday who didn’t suit up on Monday: Grayson Allen and Dillon Brooks. This isn’t nearly as fatigued a roster as the schedule might initially suggest. Brooks, in particular, is a major factor in this matchup, as he gives the Suns a physical wing defender to throw at Paolo Banchero. He won’t back down from Banchero’s bruising, downhill style and should be able to make things difficult for him. Give me the Suns at +2.5—I actually think they should be favored by around two points. The market feels like it’s overvaluing both the Magic’s rest advantage and home-court edge in this spot.

In the month, Phoenix has been six points better per 100 possessions than Orlando has been, enjoying the No. 11 net rating in the NBA at +5.7. Both offensive and defensively, the Suns have been better than the Magic.

The Hornets have a back-to-back coming up on Thursday and Friday; they likely need to win both those games — vs. Phoenix and then vs. Indiana — to keep alive their chances of slipping into the preferred Play-In game as the No. 8 seed in mid-April. Limiting Ball’s minutes tonight will only help that cause later in the week, and Charlotte certainly should not need much of a performance from him against Brooklyn.

Charlotte’s average win this month has come by 21.4 points, while the Nets have been getting blown out regularly. This is a strong bounce-back spot after losses to the Sixers and Celtics, and the Hornets don’t typically play down to competition, nor can they afford to after dropping to 10th in the East. They’re 5-1 ATS in their last six as a double-digit favorite, while Brooklyn ranks 26th in net rating over the last 10 games. This sets up for another comfortable Hornets win.

Scottie Barnes has blown past this combo O/U number in each of his last four contests, and I see him repeating the trick against a Detroit Pistons team on the second night of a back-to-back set. He’ll be a factor on the glass, too, where he’s averaging 7.7 RPG this year, and that’ll be especially vital if Jalen Duren returns for the Pistons here after missing yesterday’s game in OKC. 

The Toronto Raptors small forward has stepped up as a primary ball handler with the lineup missing key cogs in Immanuel Quickley and Brandon Ingram. He’s dished out 10, 12, 12 and 15 dimes over his last four outings, with 16.8 potential assists per game in that span. Helping those helpers has been a slate of foes immune to playmaking and Toronto shooting a blistering 53% from the field in those outings. The Pistons’ drum-tight No. 2 defensive rating doesn’t let opponents pass gas let alone the basketball. Projections remain grounded while the prop market isn’t. His assist total is up to 7.5 O/U but models barely breach six dimes, sitting as short as 5.3 assists. The Under is a juicy play but worth it considering the contrast in forecasts and foe.

Rebounding is the one area Alperen Sengun should contribute no matter anything else, no matter the opposing defensive game plan, no matter if his shot has abandoned him for a night. Yet he has fallen short of this modest prop in two of his last three games and in seven of 13 games in March despite the Houston Rockets’ overall surge on the glass.

Towns has shot the ball just 17 total times in the Knicks last two losses, hitting 10 of those attempts and finishing with outputs of 13 and 15 points. NBA analysts are calling for KAT to play a bigger role and demand touches in the Knicks’ offense, especially with the playoffs closing in. His point totals are shrinking like they jumped in a cold swimming pool, down from 20.5 to 17.5 O/U. That presents a buyback spot at Houston tonight. Towns already torched the Rockets for 25 points on 10-of-15 shooting back in February and his player projections all sit well above this 17.5-point mark, ranging from 19.4 to as high as 23.4. 

Both teams have been terrible lately, with the Mavericks winning just three of their last 18 games and Milwaukee going 3-14 in its previous 17. That said, the Mavs are on the road on a back-to-back after losing by 30 points to Minnesota last night. Meanwhile, the well-rested Bucks are at home and should have Myles Turner, Bobby Portis, and Ryan Rollins back in the lineup after they missed the previous game. That's enough for me to back them at plus money

The Purple and Gold are left black and blue by bruising interior attacks like Cleveland, which ranks Top 4 in touches in the key. The Lakers have allowed 53 points in the paint per game this month and didn’t have an answer for Allen in their most recent run-in with the Cavs. He finished 8 for 11 for 17 points in 24 minutes in a 129-99 blowout of L.A. back in late January. All of Allen’s field goals attempts came inside the paint and all but two were directly at the rim. A rested Allen is expected to see an uptick in minutes and his player projections at sit north of 12.8 points with a ceiling flirting with 15 points. 

Both teams are on the back end of a back-to-back, but Luka Doncic will return to the lineup after serving his one-game suspension. A rested Luka is worth more than a bucket, so let's back the Lakers to pick up the win at home. 

The Blazers blitz opposing ball handlers with smothering pressure and force them to get rid of the ball. That tactic has Portland giving up the third fewest points to guards across the Association (47.2 per game). Mathurin relies on getting to the foul line to pick up points, going to the stripe at least nine times in seven of his last nine outings. He won’t be able to get into attack mode versus that Portland press. Projections all sit below his scoring prop with my number just north of 15 points. That should have this Under 17.5 priced around -200 rather then the modest ask at -125.

Over the last 10 games, the Trail Blazers rank first in defensive rating and second in points allowed at 105.5, holding 12 of their last 14 opponents under 116.5. The Clippers’ recent offensive success has come against weak defenses like the Pacers, Bucks, and Mavs, and they rank 26th in shot attempts over the last 10 games. With Portland locking in defensively and L.A. playing slow, this points to an under on the Clippers’ team total.