NBA Picks

With no first-round pick to protect, the New Orleans Pelicans are still playing hard, and Trey Murphy III continues to be one of the reasons for hope in New Orleans. He’s had 22+ points in four of his last six outings, and there’s extra volume up for grabs tonight with Dejounte Murray sitting out.

Murphy III finished with 23 points last night, despite shooting just 7-for-17 from the field, and he’s making his 3-pointers at a 42% clip this month. Life would also get easier for all the Pelicans’ perimeter players if Kawhi Leonard rests on the second night of this back-to-back set.

The Pelicans check in as the lowest scoring offense in the league while on their home court this year in regard to three-point shots.. This year, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 27.2% on threes (2nd-lowest in the NBA) against the LA Clippers, making this a difficult matchup.. The Clippers have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which should reduce plays for the New Orleans Pelicans.

James Harden has cashed the Over in points in two of his last four appearances, and he already scored 24 against the Bulls earlier in the campaign.

Overall, he’s played much better on the road this season, averaging 26 PPG compared to 21.9 at home. 

 

The Bulls have won two straight against Cleveland, both as underdogs. With Cavs starting center Jarrett Allen listed out, back Chicago to keep things close at home.

The First Half Over 116.5 looks like a rock-solid spot in San Antonio, with the Spurs going Over the First Half total in 10 of their last 12 home games. Both teams are starting fast lately, with San Antonio averaging 63.5 first-half points over their last 10 games and Phoenix close behind at 59.1. They rank 2nd and 4th in first-half offensive rating in that span, while the Suns are struggling early on the defensive end. Each being red-hot from three-point land should carry this Over.

Devin Booker and Jalen Green have posted elite scoring numbers over their last seven games, leading to a major improvement in the Phoenix Suns’ offense. The Suns rank 26th in points per game (112.4) and 17th in offensive rating (113.9) on the season, but over the last seven, they’re seventh in points (116) and eighth in offensive rating (120.3).

The Lakers lead the NBA in field goal percentage and rank sixth in offensive rating during this seven-game winning streak, and they’re likely to get some shots up against Heat, who play at the NBA's highest pace. With Luka and LeBron in a great rhythm, giving them extra shots isn't a great idea.

Not all back-to-backs are created equal, and this one sets up as a tough spot for the Los Angeles Lakers. They’re playing their third game in four days, coming off two hard-fought wins in Houston, and now have to travel to Miami. That workload matters. Austin Reaves, Luka Doncic, and LeBron James all logged heavy minutes in those games, while Miami comes in with a clear rest advantage. The Heat had a day off, their starters didn’t play extended minutes in a recent blowout against the Hornets, and they also have another day off after this game. Beyond the scheduling edge, the matchup also leans toward Miami—especially with Bam Adebayo expected to play. Doncic’s offense often revolves around forcing switches onto opposing centers, but Adebayo is one of the few bigs in the league who can comfortably defend on the perimeter, taking that advantage away. I make the Heat closer to 5-point favorites.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is out due to a knee injury, while Kevin Porter and Myles Turner are also questionable to suit up. For Utah, Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George are sidelined – their two best players.

The 6th-most sluggish pace offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Bucks.. The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Westbrook is averaging 5.1 rebounds over his last nine games and has hauled down seven or more in three of his last four. The Sixers are missing several key rebounders and rank dead last in eFG% in March. That means lots of boards for Westbrook to scoop up.

This game sets up as a must-win for the Philadelphia 76ers, who are still fighting to stay in the playoff race while they wait for Tyrese Maxey and others to return. Given the current roster, this spot should be all about VJ Edgecombe’s usage. If he’s not taking 20+ shots and pushing toward 35+ minutes, it would be surprising. The opportunity is simply too big in this matchup. Edgecombe’s skill set fits perfectly here. He’s an explosive, downhill slasher, and Sacramento lacks a true point-of-attack defender who can match his athleticism. On top of that, Maxime Raynaud doesn’t provide much resistance at the rim, which should make it easier for Edgecombe to finish once he gets into the paint. The Kings also struggle in transition, and that’s another area where Edgecombe thrives as a one-man fast break. With volume and matchup both working in his favor, I price this prop at -205 for him to clear 21.5 points.

Atlanta is red-hot, having won 11 straight and going 9-1 ATS over its last 10 games. With Houston losing three of its last four, back the road team in the Space City.