Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game March 18, 2026
PHI
@
DEN
Tue, Mar 17 • 10:00 PM ET
Jamal Murray o24.5 Points Scored (-112)
Jamal Murray had a brutal showing against the Lakers, finishing with just five points on 1 of 14 shooting. In eight games prior, he averaged 29.9 points and scored 25+ six times. He's averaging a career-best 25.1 points per game, and he’s scored 25+ in 30 of 63 games.
SA
@
SAC
Tue, Mar 17 • 10:00 PM ET
SAC +13.5 (-110)
The Spurs have run a gauntlet of contenders in recent weeks and after a close road win at L.A. last night, San Antonio is set up for a classic letdown spot as double-digit road chalk. Sacramento heads into this homestand with some heat. It’s won four of the past five games while covering in all of those outings. Sacramento is 6-3 ATS when getting 10 or more points at home this season.
De'Aaron Fox o19.5 Points Scored (+115)
De’Aaron Fox is trading at +115 for the Over 19.5 points, and that’s a number worth attacking as I price it closer to -150. If there are concerns about a potential blowout, they’re already baked into the projection—this projection assumes Fox plays under 30 minutes. On the second night of a back-to-back, if the Spurs choose to limit anyone, it’s more likely to be Victor Wembanyama, which could shift even more offensive responsibility onto Fox. There’s also a strong narrative element with Fox facing his former team in Sacramento, but this isn’t just narrative-driven—it shows up in the data. Fox consistently plays with increased aggression in this matchup, with his usage rate jumping by over 7% against the Kings. All signs point to Fox taking on a heavy scoring role, making this price too good to pass up.
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