Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game May 29, 2026
SA
@
OKC
Sat, May 30 • 8:00 PM ET
SA (+135)
There’s simply not enough high-quality, efficient offense in the Oklahoma City Thunder lineup right now. Jalen Williams isn’t fully healthy as he continues to deal with a hamstring injury, and if Ajay Mitchell plays, he’ll likely be doing so at less than 100 percent. Meanwhile, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has struggled to consistently shake the point-of-attack defense of Stephon Castle, with Victor Wembanyama waiting behind him as an elite rim protector. When I watch the Thunder, I simply don’t see enough answers to the problems the San Antonio Spurs present, especially given the injuries and the fact that Chet Holmgren has largely disappeared offensively at a time when Oklahoma City needs him to take on a larger role. I thought San Antonio would win this series in seven games when it began, and my opinion has only grown stronger. The Spurs are trading at +135 on bet365, but I make them closer to +110 underdogs.
OKC (-160)
Oklahoma City is no stranger to pressure, having won a Game 7 in last year’s NBA Finals. Securing home court in the playoffs pays off in this contest: OKC owns the best offensive rating as a host in the postseason, while also going 11-5 SU on its own floor off a loss this season — including 3-0 SU in those spots in the playoffs.
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