NBA Picks

Atlanta has been the far better team, ranking 6th in net rating over the last 10 games compared to Orlando at 23rd. The Hawks have also dominated this matchup, going 3-0 straight up and ATS this season, including double-digit wins in the last two games. This is a brutal scheduling spot for the Magic, playing their second game of a back-to-back and third in four nights, with three of their starters playing minutes into the high 30s last night. Atlanta is on a 12-2 ATS tear as a favorite.

The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 7th-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Orlando Magic.. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create added chances for scoring and assists, but the Magic rank 5thworst in in the league as the home team with just 9.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

The most up-tempo tempo team in the league this year has been the Heat.. The Miami Heat have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

In regard to three-pointers, the Miami Heat's poor 32.4% rate of successful threes playing at home comes in as the weakest in the NBA over the last 15 games.. The Miami Heat are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this game from facing the least up-tempo tempo offense in the league this year (the Boston Celtics).

In regard to shot attempts from downtown, the 4th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Memphis Grizzlies.. The Grizzlies have played at the 5th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA with the home court advantage this year.

The Memphis Grizzlies are expected to see a decline in plays in this contest from being pitted against the least up-tempo pace offense in the league over the last 10 games (the New York Knicks).. The Grizzlies rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Both the Bulls and Pacers are terrible defensively and play at a fast pace. They're also eliminated from the playoffs and will likely give even less effort on D which is why the total is set at a whopping 249. That has me taking the Over 24.5 points for Indiana's leading scorer Pascal Siakam (23.8 ppg). The All-Star forward has been dealing with lingering knee pain but is probable for tonight. He's fresh off a 30-point performance against Miami and has dropped 25+ points in five of his last nine games. 

This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have averaged 4.6 three attempts per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Pacers, branding this as a difficult matchup.. The Chicago Bulls have been the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).. Over the last 20 games, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 3.5 foul shots per game (5th-fewest in the league) against the Indiana Pacers, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.

The matchup vs. Houston is a difficult one; when the Houston Rockets are on their home court, they have given up the 2nd-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PGs over the last 10 games (12.8).. The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 6th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games.. The Houston Rockets have played at the most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home stadium, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Bucks.. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, but the Bucks grade out 1stworst in in the NBA with only 8.7 offensive boards per game this year.. The matchup vs. Houston may be a hard one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting PGs have attempted just 1.7 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Houston Rockets have the home court advantage (least in the NBA).

The matchup vs. Houston is a challenging one for 3-point shots; when the Rockets are at home, the opposition's starting SFs have shot for the 2nd-lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (26.1%).. The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 6th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games.. The Houston Rockets have played at the most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games in their home stadium, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Bucks.. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, but the Bucks grade out 1stworst in in the NBA with only 8.7 offensive boards per game this year.

If sticking it to the Raptors again wasn’t enough motivation to feed him the ball, DeRozan is just nine points away from 17th on the NBA’s All-Time scoring list and 51 points out of 16th. Sacramento should be actively looking to get DeRozan involved early on with little else to play for. Projections are mixed on the Kings star. Some sit just shy of 17 points while others call for closer to 19 points for DeRozan. Given his rest, usage and motivations, I like him to top 17.5 points tonight.

This sets up as a strong bounce-back spot for Toronto, who can’t afford to slip further in the standings. We saw a similar scenario about a week ago when the Raptors lost to the Suns, then turned around the next night and beat the Jazz in Utah by 16. While recent form favors Toronto (10th vs 26th in net rating over the last 10 games), their home dominance stands out even more—they rank 3rd in net rating at home since the start of March. Sacramento, meanwhile, continues their race to the bottom, with five double-digit losses in their last seven games.

Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic is always filling up the stat sheet but his work on the glass lately has been especially impressive. The superstar center has pulled down at least 14 boards in five-straight games and is averaging 16.4 rpg over that span. Tonight, Jokic and the Nuggets are coming off two days of rest and travel to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz tonight. Since the start of January, Utah is 26th in the league in rebounding rate (48.3%) while playing at the second-fastest pace. That should lead to plenty of rebounding opportunities for Joker. 

The Denver Nuggets check in as the highest scoring offense in the league this year.. The 2nd-fastest pace away team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Denver Nuggets.. The Jazz have played at the 2nd-fastest tempo in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to increase opportunities for the Nuggets.

The matchup vs. San Antonio is a positive one for three-point shots; when the San Antonio Spurs are on the road, the opposition's starting PGs have compiled the highest 3-point percentage in the league this year (48.4%).. The Spurs have played at the 9th-quickest tempo in the league over the last 5 games, which should lead to more possessions for the Golden State Warriors.. The Warriors have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).. Over the last 10 games, opposing starting PGs have attempted 4.4 free throws per game (10th-highest in the NBA) against the San Antonio Spurs, succeeding in their efforts to draw fouls.

This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have shot 47.0% on 3-pointers (best in the NBA) vs. the Warriors, labeling this as a favorable matchup.. The 9th-fastest pace team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Spurs.. The Spurs have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games as the road team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).. The matchup against the Warriors may be a strong one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a massive 3.8 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (8th-most in the league).