NBA Picks

While the Memphis Grizzlies lost on Monday, Jaylen Wells had another impressive showing, pouring in 17 points. He’s hit the Over in four of his last five appearances, even scoring 24 last week against the Portland Trail Blazers. Wells is averaging 13.9 PPG on the road compared to 11.9 at home, and he had 14 points earlier this season against Philly, who are without several key players here.

As it relates to offense, the Philadelphia 76ers's lackluster 103.4 points per game playing at home rates 2nd-weakest in the league over the last 5 games.

Jalen Duren has been a monster for the Detroit Pistons. Even amid a four-game losing skid, the big man is still doing his part. He's cashed the Over in points in four of his last seven contests, including a 24-point outing Sunday night in Miami. The center is averaging 18.5 ppg overall and 22.7 points across three meetings with the Brooklyn Nets this season. In March, his average sits at 17.6 ppg. Duren is set to cook Brooklyn and should help Detroit end its losing streak tonight.

Detroit finds itself in a perfect bounce-back spot against a Nets team that struggles badly in this situation. Brooklyn is 2-9 ATS in the second game of back-to-backs this season, and the results haven’t been close—losing by 37 to Boston and 19 to OKC in their last two such spots. The Pistons have dropped four straight, including a loss to these Nets on Saturday, but as the No. 1 seed in the East with Boston closing in, this is not a spot to play down to the competition. Don't forget the Pistons obliterated the Nets by 53 back on February 1st.

The Miami Heat typically stay locked in on the opponent in front of them since they’ve covered six straight games as double-digit favorites. The Washington Wizards have the second-worst record in the Eastern Conference and are hitting a season low. They’ve been double-digit underdogs in seven of the last eight games and are 0-8 straight up, 2-6 ATS over that span. They’ve lost their last two as 15+ point underdogs and are 2-7 in their last nine as double-digit dogs.

 

Miami is one of the hotter teams in the Association since the break, going 7-2 SU and ATS. Washington, meanwhile, has lost eight straight (2-6 ATS) since beating up on the pitiful Pacers in back-to-back games following the All-Star Game. The Heat are 4-1 SU and ATS vs. the Wizards dating back to last season.

Dallas is struggling to score points. The Mavs are averaging 101.3 ppg over their last nine games, and have scored 100 points or less in four of those contests. That’s led to a series of blowouts, as they’ve lost by double digits in five of those games. I see it happening again tonight, and I’m taking the Hawks to cover.

Atlanta and Dallas are trending in completely opposite directions heading into this matchup. The Hawks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games and rank 7th in net rating over the last 10 games, while the Mavericks are 27th and have lost five of their last six games by double digits. Over the last five games the gap is even wider—Atlanta ranks 1st in net rating and defensive rating, while Dallas is dead last offensively. The situational edge favors Atlanta as well, rested at home while Dallas continues a brutal road trip.

In three games since returning from a lengthy absence, Giannis Antetokounmpo has averaged just 23.3 points, but he will have no problem cashing the Over on his points prop tonight. The Greek Freak is a perennial 30-point-per-game scorer, so there’s value to be had with his points line. Antetokounmpo’s playing time and points scored have increased in each of his last two games, culminating in 27 points in 27 minutes. He’s scored 30+ in four straight matchups with the Suns, and he’ll need to be great tonight to get his team back in the win column.

The Bucks check in as the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA on their home court this year.. The matchup against Phoenix is a strong one for drawing fouls; opposing starting SGs have attempted an enormous 3.8 free throws per game this year when the Phoenix Suns are the visiting team (2nd-most in the league).

Alperen Sengun is trading at +102 for the Over 18.5 points, and that’s a number I’m happy to attack as I price it closer to -205. This is my favorite prop on the board for Tuesday. Sengun draws a strong matchup against the Raptors, especially with Jakob Poeltl listed as questionable due to illness. Even if Poeltl does suit up, dealing with Sengun’s physicality and post game while not fully healthy will be a difficult task. If Poeltl sits, Toronto has shown a willingness to go smaller and even use wings at the five, but that strategy is unlikely to hold up against Sengun. In a league where many centers are pulled out to the perimeter, Sengun remains one of the few bigs who can consistently seal defenders, use his strength, and punish teams with traditional post play. Given how the Raptors prefer to defend, he should have plenty of room to operate in the areas of the floor where he’s most effective.

The Rockets check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).

The Celtics are 22-11 straight up on the road, and they’ve won five of their last six outside Boston.

De’Aaron Fox is one of the most clutch scorers in the NBA right now, but the problem this season with the San Antonio Spurs is that they’ve been blowing teams out. Because of that, Fox often falls under his points prop simply due to a lack of late-game opportunities. That dynamic should change against the Boston Celtics. The Spurs are only 3.5-point favorites in what projects to be the game of the night, which creates a strong chance Fox sees a high-usage fourth quarter. Derrick White is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, but even he will have his hands full chasing Fox’s speed through double-drag screens and horns actions—especially when he also has to account for the gravity of Victor Wembanyama. I price this prop at -180 for Fox to go over 16.5 points.

The Hornets are expected to get a boost in opportunities today from being pitted against the 3rd-speediest pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Portland Trail Blazers).. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Charlotte Hornets rank 2nd-best in in the league with 13.9 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.. The matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers may be a strong one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a colossal 6.5 free throws per game over the last 10 games (2nd-most in the league).

When it comes to shots from downtown, the Portland Trail Blazers's unimpressive 33.7% rate of converted threes ranks 2nd-fewest in the league this year.. The Hornets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games while traveling, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Trail Blazers.

With both groups also playing at a top-five pace, the combination of extra possessions and awful stop units sets up as a high-scoring affair in Sacramento. 

Malik Monk has scored 18.6 points per game over the last 5 games while at home, 3.9 more than he's scored overall this year at home.. The 6th-speediest pace home offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Kings.. The Pacers have played at the speediest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should raise opportunities for the Sacramento Kings.. The Sacramento Kings have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

The Bulls have been racking up losses, but Giddey continues to deliver standout numbers. He’s coming off a triple-double at the weekend, and he’s dished 9+ assists in four straight outings. Giddey’s playmaking goes up a notch on the road, and it helps that Chicago ranks eighth in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season. With the Bulls playing with tanking freedom this month, the Aussie is on pace to match his 9.8 APG mark from November. I’m not scared off by his recent ankle issue, especially against a Warriors team that allowed 119 points in Utah last night.

The Golden State Warriors are expected to see a spike in plays in this game from sharing the court with the speediest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Bulls).. The Golden State Warriors have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

When the Minnesota Timberwolves dispatched the Los Angeles Lakers with ease in last year’s first round, it was largely a credit to how easily their defense mitigated the Lakers’ post game. Removing rim runners from Luka Doncic’s peripheral vision reduces Doncic’s overall effectiveness.

Luka Doncic is trading at -115 for the Over 31.5 points, and that’s a number worth attacking given that I price it closer to -170. This sets up as a rivalry game between the Lakers and the Timberwolves, and with the Lakers off yesterday and another off day tomorrow, there’s little reason to expect any limitation on Doncic’s workload. In what should be a competitive matchup, 38+ minutes is very much in play. Minnesota does have an excellent defender in Jaden McDaniels to throw at Doncic, but this bet is more about volume than efficiency. Doncic is always willing to take on a heavy scoring load, and that tendency only increases when things get personal. He has a well-documented rivalry with Rudy Gobert, and whenever he gets Gobert switched onto him in isolation, the shot is almost always going up. In those moments, Doncic has a habit of turning into a flamethrower from deep.

Denver is just 14-16 ATS at home this season, and with star point guard Jamal Murray listed as a game-time decision, I'll take the points with the Rockets on Wednesday night.