Oklahoma City @ Denver picks

Michael Porter Jr. averaged 18.2 points on 50.4% shooting in the regular season and scored at least nine points in 73 of 77 games. That includes all four matchups with the Thunder in which he averaged 20 points. Porter is a hot-and-cold scorer who’s in the midst of a cold streak, but with Denver’s season on the line, I expect him to shoot his way out of it tonight and make a meaningful impact on offense.

Aaron Gordon has been great on the glass against OKC, averaging 9.5 boards across six matchups (excluding a game with seven minutes played). He pulled down 11 at home and eight on the road and hit the Over in four of six. Gordon has recorded seven rebounds in all three home bouts with the Thunder this season, and I expect him to make it four tonight.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's size allowed him to snag 5.0 rebounds per game during the regular season, a number that has grown up to 6.6 per game in the playoffs. And against Denver, that number has grown to 7.8, with SGA already going into double figures on the boards in two of the first five games. More importantly, he's gotten to at least six in four of the first five games of this series. The only exception was the 43-point blowout win for the Thunder in Game 2, in which he only played 30 minutes.

Nikola Jokic’s assist numbers are down this postseason, but he averaged a career-high 10.2 during the regular season, and he’s averaged 9.7 across the last three. With so much room for positive regression from teammates and a trend of facilitating more than scoring at home, Joker’s assists line is oh-so juicy at 8.5 for plus-money odds.

Among all players in the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. slots into the 86th percentile for shots from the field converted, logging a whopping 6.4 per game this year.. Michael Porter Jr. has converted 2.4 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile out of all players in the league.. Among all players in the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. measures in the 91st percentile for playing time, logging a massive 33.4 minutes per game while at home this year.. The Denver Nuggets will likely see a rise in plays in this game from competing against the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 20 games (the Thunder).. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and spark more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 5th-best in in the league with 12.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

Christian Braun has attempted 6.2 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 3.1 more than he's attempted in all games this season.. Christian Braun has been on the court for 39.5 minutes per game over the last 10 games while at home, 4.8 higher than he's been on the court for overall this season at home.. The Denver Nuggets will likely see a rise in plays in this game from competing against the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 20 games (the Thunder).. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and spark more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 5th-best in in the league with 12.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.. Relative to last season's 1.1 clip, Christian Braun's free throws hit have increased this season to 2.1 per game.

Jamal Murray has tallied 25.2 points per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 4.0 more than he's tallied overall this year at home.. Among all players in the league, Jamal Murray measures in the 99th percentile for playing time, tallying an enormous 37.0 minutes per game this year.. The matchup against the Thunder is a strong one for shots from behind the three-point arc; the opposition's starting PGs have tallied the most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (7.7).. The Denver Nuggets will likely see a rise in plays in this game from competing against the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 20 games (the Thunder).. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and spark more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 5th-best in in the league with 12.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.

Nikola Jokic has been called for 4.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 more than he's been called for in all games this year.. The Denver Nuggets rank as the least aggressive offense in the NBA this year as it relates to three-point attempts.. The Nuggets have played at the 9th-slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games as the home team.

Jamal Murray has compiled 1.4 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games, 0.7 higher than he's compiled overall this season.. Among all players in the league, Jamal Murray measures in the 99th percentile for playing time, tallying an enormous 37.0 minutes per game this year.. The Denver Nuggets will likely see a rise in plays in this game from competing against the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 20 games (the Thunder).. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and spark more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 5th-best in in the league with 12.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.. Jamal Murray should see a spike in productivity across the board as a result of controlling the home court advantage in this game.

Christian Braun has tallied 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 1.3 more than he's tallied over the course of the year at home.. The Denver Nuggets rank as the least aggressive offense in the NBA this year as it relates to three-point attempts.. The Nuggets have played at the 9th-slowest pace in the league over the last 5 games as the home team.

Among all players in the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. measures in the 91st percentile for playing time, logging a massive 33.4 minutes per game while at home this year.. The Denver Nuggets will likely see a rise in plays in this game from competing against the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 20 games (the Thunder).. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and spark more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 5th-best in in the league with 12.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.. Michael Porter Jr. will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court tends to boost stat production for all stats.

Among all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren comes in at the 76th percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 28.1 minutes per game this year.. The Thunder have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 20 games.. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games as the road team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).