The Oklahoma City Thunder have a chance to claim a spot in the Western Conference Finals as they travel to take on the Denver Nuggets in Game 6 tonight.
The Thunder have faced a tougher than expected series, but presumptive MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has kept Oklahoma City on top after showing up big in a 31-point performance in Game 5.
For tonight’s game, I’m looking at how SGA can contribute, in particular via rebounding, which has been a surprising factor in this series. Let’s dig into my top Shai Gilgeous-Alexander props, free NBA picks, and Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions for Thursday, May 15.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop picks
- Best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o5.5 rebounds
(-130) - SGP pick
Gilgeous-Alexander o5.5 rebounds
Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points
Thunder moneyline
(+300)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander best bet
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 rebounds (-130 at bet365)
For all his many talents, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t particularly known as a rebounder. He led the NBA in scoring (32.7 points per game) and can distribute the ball as well (6.4 assists per game). But the importance of his lanky 6-foot-6 frame is sometimes overlooked.
SGA uses his height to his advantage to create shots, of course, but when rebounds fall to the guards, he often has a significant edge over his opponents. That’s true against Denver Nuggets point guards Jamal Murray and Russell Westbrook, who are no slouches themselves, checking in at 6-foot-4.
That size allowed Gilgeous-Alexander to snag 5.0 rebounds per game during the regular season, a number that has grown up to 6.6 per game in the playoffs. And against Denver, that number has grown to 7.8, with SGA already going into double figures on the boards in two of the first five games.
More importantly, Gilgeous-Alexander has gotten to at least six rebounds in four of the first five games of this series. The only exception was the 43-point blowout win for the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 2, in which he only played 30 minutes.
With the Nuggets at home on the verge of elimination, there’s little chance of a blowout tonight.
In each of the last two games, it took a late comeback effort from Oklahoma City to claim wins, and we’ll likely see a similarly close affair in Game 6. That should mean somewhere around 40 minutes on the court for SGA, more than enough time for him to get above his rebounding total tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 rebounds
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points
Thunder moneyline
Just because I’m especially confident about SGA hitting his rebounding prop doesn’t mean I don’t also believe in him as a scorer. Sure, he’s had a couple of lighter games in this series, including a stretch in Games 3 and 4 in which he and fellow MVP finalist Nikola Jokic both suddenly forgot how to shoot.
But that’s atypical for Gilgeous-Alexander, who spent the entire season showing he’s perhaps the most consistent and unstoppable scoring threat in the NBA. SGA has already hit the 30+ point mark in three games in this series — even in that Game 2 blowout — and I fully expect him to get to that target again in tonight’s crucial game.
I’m also taking the Thunder to win outright. It’s tempting to take Oklahoma City to cover the spread, but that feels dangerous in a series where the Thunder have only covered once. In fact, the Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last seven playoff games overall.
But Oklahoma City is the deeper and more talented team. And while Denver is tough at home, the Thunder don't want to put their season on the line in a winner-take-all Game 7. I’m picking SGA to lead them to a win tonight, closing out both the series and our SGP.
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