The Oklahoma City Thunder closed out a tightly contested Game 5 to take a 3-2 series lead, and the Denver Nuggets will need a win on Thursday night to stave off elimination.
My Thunder vs Nuggets props and NBA picks for Thursday, May 15 focus on three Nuggets ready to strike gold at home and extend the series to a winner-take-all Game 7.
Best Thunder vs Nuggets props
Jokic o8.5 assists (+115)- Porter o8.5 points (-125)
- Gordon o6.5 rebounds (-130)
Thunder vs Nuggets player props for May 15
Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 assists (+115 at bet365)
I’m bananas over this pick, and I’m hammering the Over. Nikola Jokic has recorded fewer than nine assists in seven straight games and has averaged 8.1 across 12 playoff games, including 8.5 at home and 7.7 on the road. Despite the dearth of dimes, I expect him to get back on track in that department at home tonight.
Jokic has recorded nine or more assists in just four of 12 playoff games, but he’s done it in three of six at home. The big man’s home/road splits have been quite noticeable, with averages of 21.8 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 8.5 dimes at home compared to 31.2, 14.3, and 7.7 on the road.
The Denver Nuggets shot just 41.2% from the floor in Game 5, including 28.3% from beyond the arc. Jokic turned in a game-high 44 points, but the rest of Denver’s starters combined for just 51 points. The trio of Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., and Christian Braun combined for 23 points on 10 of 32 shooting.
The Nuggets were within striking distance in the closing moments of Game 5 despite the offensive shortcomings of 60% of the starters. The rest of the team not named Jokic and Jamal Murray will need to step up if Denver hopes to stay alive. I expect Braun, Gordon, and Porter to do so, and I expect Jokic to feed them.
Joker’s assist numbers are down this postseason, but he averaged a career-high 10.2 during the regular season, and he’s averaged 9.7 across the last three. With so much room for positive regression from teammates and a trend of facilitating more than scoring at home, Joker’s assists line is oh-so juicy at 8.5 for plus-money odds.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 8.5 points (-125 at bet365)
MPJ has been living in brick city this postseason, averaging just 9.3 points across 12 playoff appearances. He’s been a far more productive and efficient scorer at home than on the road, averaging 11.8 points at Ball Arena while shooting 49.1% from the floor and 46.7% from beyond the arc. On the road, he’s averaged 6.8 points on 28% shooting from the floor and 25.8% shooting from downtown.
Aside from a 21-point outburst in Game 3, Porter has scored fewer than nine points in four of five playoff games against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
He averaged 18.2 points on 50.4% shooting in the regular season and scored at least nine points in 73 of 77 games. That includes all four matchups with the Thunder in which he averaged 20 points.
Porter is a hot-and-cold scorer who’s in the midst of a cold streak, but with Denver’s season on the line, I expect him to shoot his way out of it tonight and make a meaningful impact on offense.
Aaron Gordon Over 6.5 rebounds (-130 at bet365)
Gordon grabbed just 4.8 rebounds per game in the regular season, marking his lowest average since 2014-15. Despite the downturn in boards, Gordon has been on a roll in the playoffs, hauling in 7.3 boards across 12 appearances.
Like Joker and MPJ, AG has been more productive at home than on the road. He’s pulled down 7.7 rebounds per game at home and grabbed at least seven in three of six home playoff games.
Gordon has been great on the glass against OKC, averaging 9.5 boards across six matchups (excluding a game with seven minutes played). He pulled down 11 at home and eight on the road and hit the Over in four of six. Gordon has recorded seven rebounds in all three home bouts with the Thunder this season, and I expect him to make it four tonight.
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