Dallas @ Sacramento picks

Some sportsbooks have already cut Klay’s points prop down from 14.5 to 13.5 O/U. He’s failed to score 15 points or more in eight of his last 10 games, with his minutes taking a knock in the home stretch of the schedule. Scanning his game-to-game output, you regularly see 20-point efforts followed by single-digit scoring nights. If Thompson comes out cold on offense or proves to be a liability on defense against the Kings, head coach Jason Kidd will not hesitate to take him out and replace him with the youthful legs of Max Christie, who has been eating up Thompson’s floor time and making the most of it. Projections sit short of 15 points for Thompson and with the market moving toward the Under, I’m grabbing a good price with the high side of this prop number.

The 6-foot-6 forward is active on the glass, averaging almost eight rebounds per game on the season but that output has been hindered by an ankle injury and the arrival of Anthony Davis on the glass. Washington has shown flashes of that work on the boards in recent outings, snatching 6.7 rebounds in his last six contests. Projections for Wednesday’s Play-In tilt call for six or more boards with some models north of seven rebounds. Given those forecasts, the Over 5.5 rebounds from Washington should be priced higher than -200 which takes a little sting out of laying -125. I’ll also be sprinkling a little bit on the milestone market of 7+ rebounds at +140.

AD enjoys his matchups with Domantas Sabonis. In Davis’s last nine games against the Kings, he has cleared this prop in six, including each of three meetings this season. Those meetings came within two weeks in December, but it warrants noting that Davis came out ahead on the glass in those three games while wearing a Lakers jersey. Davis grabbed 19, 15 and 15 rebounds in those challenges, compared to Sabonis’s 12, 19 and 12. Davis has played only nine games with the Mavericks, but his overall rebounding rate has held rather consistently, grabbing fewer offensive boards and more defensive boards. His per 36 minutes rate remains at 12.3 compared to 12.5 in 42 games with the Lakers.

Sabonis is the biggest cog in the Kings’ offensive machine, playing a major role in the dribble-handoff sets and high pick-and-roll that Sacramento loves to run. On the season, Sabonis boasted 9.5 potential assists per game. In the two matchups with the Mavs, that advanced stat jumped to 13.0 potential assists and he finished with outputs of seven and eight dimes in his two contests versus Dallas. The Mavericks aren’t a great defensive team, rated 24th since the All-Star break, and have a tough time defending handoff and pick-and-roll offenses. Dallas also allowed more than 27 assists per game on the year. Sabonis’ projections for Wednesday either sit on or above the 6.5-assist total and with the Over priced at +115, we’re getting good pop from this passing prop.