LIVE 07:20 1st Oct 13
MIA 0 -4.5 o227.0
ATL 0 4.5 u227.0
SA 2.5 o235.0
IND -2.5 u235.0
WAS 4.0 o220.0
NY -4.0 u220.0
DAL -4.0 o235.5
UTA 4.0 u235.5
Miami 10th East37-49
Chicago 9th East39-43

Miami @ Chicago Picks & Props

MIA vs CHI Picks

NBA Picks
Points Scored
Bam Adebayo logo Bam Adebayo o19.5 Points Scored (-105)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 months ago
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Bam is averaging 21.2 points over his last 35 games and that span includes three meetings with the Bulls. In those contests, Adebayo posted point totals of 18, 22, and 23 while shooting a collective 49% from the floor in just over 36 minutes of work per outing. A healthy chunk of those buckets came inside, with Adebayo averaging 9.3 points in the paint across that trio of tangles with Chicago. The Bulls defense has a notable soft spot in the interior, allowing opponents to shoot 55.6% from inside the arc and ranked dead last in PITP allowed in the league (54.0 PITP per game). Wednesday’s player props give Adebayo a scoring total of 19.5 points – a bar he’s topped in five of his last six games to end the regular season. Projections for Wednesday’s game range from 19.6 to closer to 21 points from Adebayo. My number comes out to just shy of 21 points from Bam against the Bulls.

3-Pointers Made
Matas Buzelis logo Matas Buzelis o1.5 3-Pointers Made (-135)
Pick made: 6 months ago
Douglas Farmer image
Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Chicago stressed Miami’s defense last week. Both its rate of long-range attempts and percentage of makes tracked in line with Chicago’s quality 3-point shooting offense, and both outpaced Miami’s usual 3-point defense. Matas Buzelis contributed to those woes by making 3-of-5 shots from deep last week. The rookie has become a late-season starter in large part because of his shooting. Ignoring Chicago’s mailed-in season finale, Buzelis cleared this prop in five straight games to end the regular season and in 10 of his last 11 games.

3-Pointers Made
Tyler Herro logo Tyler Herro u2.5 3-Pointers Made (-105)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 months ago
Douglas Farmer image
Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Herro went an ugly 2-of-7 from deep in a loss in Chicago a week ago. Herro’s results were not that shocking against a defense that gives up relatively few looks from deep, and the ones available are generally bad. The Bulls have ranked No. 14 in rate of opponents’ shots coming from deep in the last month, those shots then falling just 34.7% of the time, No. 7 in the NBA since March 12. Herro is a good shotmaker, but when his shots are regularly contested, obviously life is going to be more difficult. Then factor in this Play-In game having a total 8.5 points lower than the game a week ago and suddenly it becomes clear, open looks should be even scarcer.

3-Pointers Made
Duncan Robinson logo Duncan Robinson u2.5 3-Pointers Made (-188)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 months ago
Douglas Farmer image
Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Robinson went 0-of-4 from deep at Chicago last week, one of three times in his last six games where he fell short of this prop. Go back to before his late-March absence and Robinson has fallen short of this prop in 5 of his last 8 games and 7 of his last 12. Those rates may not encourage a bet juiced to -170, but that faith in Chicago’s defense warrants it. The Heat did not stress that defense a week ago, taking 35.9% of their shots from deep and making 36% of them, both significantly lower than Miami’s usuals presumably because the Bulls were encouraging only bad looks. A lower game total, the opposing perimeter defense and the likely fewer chances all justify this bet in spite of the juice.

Game Prop
Miami Heat logo o109.5 Team Total (-108)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 months ago
Rohit Ponnaiya image
Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst

The Heat surged on offense down the stretch. They scored more than 110 points in 11 of their last 12 games and led the NBA in offensive rating over that span. Although they have issues with scoring depth, the trio of Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, and Bam Adebayo can get buckets, and the shortened rotations in the post-season will ensure they stay on the floor. Meanwhile, the Bulls play at the second-fastest pace in the league and rank 28th in ppg allowed (119.4). They closed their season with back-to-back strong defensive performances, but those came against the lowly 76ers and Wizards. Before that, they had surrendered more than 110 points in 12 consecutive games. 

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MIA vs CHI Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

64% picking Chicago

36%
64%

Total Picks MIA 326, CHI 592

Spread
MIA
CHI

MIA vs CHI Props

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Alec Burks Points Scored Props • Miami

Alec Burks
A. Burks
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.9
Best Odds

Alec Burks has made an impressive 39.3% of his shot attempts from the field this year, quite a bit higher than his 33.8 mark last year. Alec Burks has accumulated 0.8 personal fouls per game when playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 17th percentile -- among the league's least-whistled. The Miami Heat rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court. The Heat will likely see an increase in plays in this game from competing against the quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Bulls). Alec Burks has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 20.7% higher than he's sunk overall this year.

Alec Burks

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.9
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.9

Alec Burks has made an impressive 39.3% of his shot attempts from the field this year, quite a bit higher than his 33.8 mark last year. Alec Burks has accumulated 0.8 personal fouls per game when playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 17th percentile -- among the league's least-whistled. The Miami Heat rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court. The Heat will likely see an increase in plays in this game from competing against the quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Bulls). Alec Burks has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 20.7% higher than he's sunk overall this year.

Kel'el Ware Points Scored Props • Miami

Kel'el Ware
K. Ware
center C • Miami
Prop
8.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.7
Best Odds

Kel'el Ware has converted 60.7% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games, 6.5% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this year. Kel'el Ware has converted 50.0% of his 3-point shots over the last 5 games on the road, 29.5% higher than he's converted from downtown over the course of the season when playing on the road. Kel'el Ware has been on the court for 27.3 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 5.1 higher than he's been on the court for in all games this year. The Miami Heat rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court. The matchup vs. Nikola Vucevic is a good one; he has allowed a whopping 16.2 points per game when squaring off against other starting Cs this year (100th percentile).

Kel'el Ware

Prop: 8.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.7
Prop:
8.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.7

Kel'el Ware has converted 60.7% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games, 6.5% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this year. Kel'el Ware has converted 50.0% of his 3-point shots over the last 5 games on the road, 29.5% higher than he's converted from downtown over the course of the season when playing on the road. Kel'el Ware has been on the court for 27.3 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 5.1 higher than he's been on the court for in all games this year. The Miami Heat rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court. The matchup vs. Nikola Vucevic is a good one; he has allowed a whopping 16.2 points per game when squaring off against other starting Cs this year (100th percentile).

Coby White Points Scored Props • Chicago

Coby White
C. White
shooting guard SG • Chicago
Prop
23.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.6
Best Odds

The Bulls are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from facing the 3rd-most sluggish pace team in the NBA this year (the Heat). The Chicago Bulls have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists). The matchup vs. Miami may be a difficult one for drawing fouls; opposing starting SGs have attempted a mere 1.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Heat are on the road (4th-least in the league).

Coby White

Prop: 23.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.6
Prop:
23.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.6

The Bulls are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from facing the 3rd-most sluggish pace team in the NBA this year (the Heat). The Chicago Bulls have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists). The matchup vs. Miami may be a difficult one for drawing fouls; opposing starting SGs have attempted a mere 1.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Heat are on the road (4th-least in the league).

Patrick Williams Points Scored Props • Chicago

Patrick Williams
P. Williams
power forward PF • Chicago
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.3
Best Odds

Patrick Williams has sunk 4.6 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's put through the net over the course of the season. As it relates to scoring, the Bulls's terrific 122.1 points per game measures as the 2nd-strongest in the NBA over the last 25 games. The Chicago Bulls have played at the quickest tempo in the league over the last 25 games. Patrick Williams will enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing at home generally raises player production in all facets of the game.

Patrick Williams

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.3
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.3

Patrick Williams has sunk 4.6 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's put through the net over the course of the season. As it relates to scoring, the Bulls's terrific 122.1 points per game measures as the 2nd-strongest in the NBA over the last 25 games. The Chicago Bulls have played at the quickest tempo in the league over the last 25 games. Patrick Williams will enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing at home generally raises player production in all facets of the game.

Josh Giddey Points Scored Props • Chicago

Josh Giddey
J. Giddey
point guard PG • Chicago
Prop
19.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.9
Best Odds

The Bulls are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from facing the 3rd-most sluggish pace team in the NBA this year (the Heat). The Chicago Bulls have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Josh Giddey

Prop: 19.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.9
Prop:
19.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.9

The Bulls are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from facing the 3rd-most sluggish pace team in the NBA this year (the Heat). The Chicago Bulls have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Kevin Huerter Points Scored Props • Chicago

Kevin Huerter
K. Huerter
shooting guard SG • Chicago
Prop
13.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.8
Best Odds

Kevin Huerter has committed 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's committed overall this year. The Bulls are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from facing the 3rd-most sluggish pace team in the NBA this year (the Heat). The Chicago Bulls have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Kevin Huerter

Prop: 13.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.8
Prop:
13.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.8

Kevin Huerter has committed 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's committed overall this year. The Bulls are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from facing the 3rd-most sluggish pace team in the NBA this year (the Heat). The Chicago Bulls have been the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Andrew Wiggins Points Scored Props • Miami

Andrew Wiggins
A. Wiggins
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
18.5
Points Scored
Projection
19
Best Odds

Andrew Wiggins has attempted 13.7 shots per game without the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 87th percentile among all players in the league. Andrew Wiggins has successfully made 2.2 3-pointers per game this year, placing him in the 87th percentile out of all players in the league. Among all players in the NBA, Andrew Wiggins lands in the 81st percentile for playing time, posting a massive 30.4 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year. The Miami Heat rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court. The Heat will likely see an increase in plays in this game from competing against the quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Bulls).

Andrew Wiggins

Prop: 18.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19
Prop:
18.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19

Andrew Wiggins has attempted 13.7 shots per game without the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 87th percentile among all players in the league. Andrew Wiggins has successfully made 2.2 3-pointers per game this year, placing him in the 87th percentile out of all players in the league. Among all players in the NBA, Andrew Wiggins lands in the 81st percentile for playing time, posting a massive 30.4 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year. The Miami Heat rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court. The Heat will likely see an increase in plays in this game from competing against the quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Bulls).

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

Bam Adebayo
B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.1
Best Odds

The matchup vs. the Chicago Bulls is a hard one for shots from the field; opposing starting PFs have tallied the 3rd-least field goal attempts per game in the NBA this year (11.5). The Heat have played at the 3rd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists). Bam Adebayo should suffer a reduction in effectiveness for all stats due to playing away from home in this matchup.

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.1
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.1

The matchup vs. the Chicago Bulls is a hard one for shots from the field; opposing starting PFs have tallied the 3rd-least field goal attempts per game in the NBA this year (11.5). The Heat have played at the 3rd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA this year. The Miami Heat check in as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists). Bam Adebayo should suffer a reduction in effectiveness for all stats due to playing away from home in this matchup.

Nikola Vucevic Points Scored Props • Chicago

Nikola Vucevic
N. Vucevic
center C • Chicago
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.7
Best Odds

Nikola Vucevic has made 9.4 buckets per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.6 more than he's sunk in all games this season on his home court. Nikola Vucevic has averaged 31.2 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 83rd percentile. As it relates to scoring, the Bulls's terrific 122.1 points per game measures as the 2nd-strongest in the NBA over the last 25 games. The rate of shots from behind the three-point arc drained against Kel'el Ware has been very high (40.6%) when guarding fellow starting Cs this year (100th percentile). The Chicago Bulls have played at the quickest tempo in the league over the last 25 games.

Nikola Vucevic

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.7
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.7

Nikola Vucevic has made 9.4 buckets per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.6 more than he's sunk in all games this season on his home court. Nikola Vucevic has averaged 31.2 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 83rd percentile. As it relates to scoring, the Bulls's terrific 122.1 points per game measures as the 2nd-strongest in the NBA over the last 25 games. The rate of shots from behind the three-point arc drained against Kel'el Ware has been very high (40.6%) when guarding fellow starting Cs this year (100th percentile). The Chicago Bulls have played at the quickest tempo in the league over the last 25 games.

Davion Mitchell Points Scored Props • Miami

Davion Mitchell
D. Mitchell
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.2
Best Odds

Davion Mitchell has sunk 52.8% of his field goal attempts over the last 15 games on the road, 10.8% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the year while on the road. Davion Mitchell has converted 50.1% of his 3-point shots over the last 15 games on the road, 9.8% higher than he's converted from downtown in all games this year without the home court advantage. Davion Mitchell has played 32.4 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.0 higher than he's played in all games this season. The Miami Heat rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court. The Heat will likely see an increase in plays in this game from competing against the quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Bulls).

Davion Mitchell

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.2
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.2

Davion Mitchell has sunk 52.8% of his field goal attempts over the last 15 games on the road, 10.8% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the year while on the road. Davion Mitchell has converted 50.1% of his 3-point shots over the last 15 games on the road, 9.8% higher than he's converted from downtown in all games this year without the home court advantage. Davion Mitchell has played 32.4 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 5.0 higher than he's played in all games this season. The Miami Heat rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court. The Heat will likely see an increase in plays in this game from competing against the quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Bulls).

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

Tyler Herro
T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
24.5
Points Scored
Projection
24.6
Best Odds

Tyler Herro has registered 27.4 points per game over the last 10 games, 3.5 higher than he's registered overall this season. Among all players in the league, Tyler Herro ranks in the 95th percentile for playing time, logging a monstrous 35.1 minutes per game while playing on the road this year. The Miami Heat rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court. The Heat will likely see an increase in plays in this game from competing against the quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Bulls). Tyler Herro has made 5.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.5 higher than he's put through the net overall this season while playing away from home.

Tyler Herro

Prop: 24.5 Points Scored
Projection: 24.6
Prop:
24.5 Points Scored
Projection:
24.6

Tyler Herro has registered 27.4 points per game over the last 10 games, 3.5 higher than he's registered overall this season. Among all players in the league, Tyler Herro ranks in the 95th percentile for playing time, logging a monstrous 35.1 minutes per game while playing on the road this year. The Miami Heat rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court. The Heat will likely see an increase in plays in this game from competing against the quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Bulls). Tyler Herro has made 5.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.5 higher than he's put through the net overall this season while playing away from home.

Duncan Robinson Points Scored Props • Miami

Duncan Robinson
D. Robinson
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.60
(Season avg.)
Best Odds

Duncan Robinson has gone over 7.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Dalen Terry Points Scored Props • Chicago

Dalen Terry
D. Terry
shooting guard SG • Chicago
Prop
4.5
Points Scored
Projection
4.43
(Season avg.)
Best Odds

Dalen Terry has gone over 4.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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