Miami @ Chicago picks

Bam is averaging 21.2 points over his last 35 games and that span includes three meetings with the Bulls. In those contests, Adebayo posted point totals of 18, 22, and 23 while shooting a collective 49% from the floor in just over 36 minutes of work per outing. A healthy chunk of those buckets came inside, with Adebayo averaging 9.3 points in the paint across that trio of tangles with Chicago. The Bulls defense has a notable soft spot in the interior, allowing opponents to shoot 55.6% from inside the arc and ranked dead last in PITP allowed in the league (54.0 PITP per game). Wednesday’s player props give Adebayo a scoring total of 19.5 points – a bar he’s topped in five of his last six games to end the regular season. Projections for Wednesday’s game range from 19.6 to closer to 21 points from Adebayo. My number comes out to just shy of 21 points from Bam against the Bulls.

Robinson went 0-of-4 from deep at Chicago last week, one of three times in his last six games where he fell short of this prop. Go back to before his late-March absence and Robinson has fallen short of this prop in 5 of his last 8 games and 7 of his last 12. Those rates may not encourage a bet juiced to -170, but that faith in Chicago’s defense warrants it. The Heat did not stress that defense a week ago, taking 35.9% of their shots from deep and making 36% of them, both significantly lower than Miami’s usuals presumably because the Bulls were encouraging only bad looks. A lower game total, the opposing perimeter defense and the likely fewer chances all justify this bet in spite of the juice.

Herro went an ugly 2-of-7 from deep in a loss in Chicago a week ago. Herro’s results were not that shocking against a defense that gives up relatively few looks from deep, and the ones available are generally bad. The Bulls have ranked No. 14 in rate of opponents’ shots coming from deep in the last month, those shots then falling just 34.7% of the time, No. 7 in the NBA since March 12. Herro is a good shotmaker, but when his shots are regularly contested, obviously life is going to be more difficult. Then factor in this Play-In game having a total 8.5 points lower than the game a week ago and suddenly it becomes clear, open looks should be even scarcer.

Chicago stressed Miami’s defense last week. Both its rate of long-range attempts and percentage of makes tracked in line with Chicago’s quality 3-point shooting offense, and both outpaced Miami’s usual 3-point defense. Matas Buzelis contributed to those woes by making 3-of-5 shots from deep last week. The rookie has become a late-season starter in large part because of his shooting. Ignoring Chicago’s mailed-in season finale, Buzelis cleared this prop in five straight games to end the regular season and in 10 of his last 11 games.

The Heat surged on offense down the stretch. They scored more than 110 points in 11 of their last 12 games and led the NBA in offensive rating over that span. Although they have issues with scoring depth, the trio of Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, and Bam Adebayo can get buckets, and the shortened rotations in the post-season will ensure they stay on the floor. Meanwhile, the Bulls play at the second-fastest pace in the league and rank 28th in ppg allowed (119.4). They closed their season with back-to-back strong defensive performances, but those came against the lowly 76ers and Wizards. Before that, they had surrendered more than 110 points in 12 consecutive games.