Memphis @ Golden State picks

While Memphis rested its starters on Sunday, Golden State lost in OT with its starters logging hefty minutes. On two days turnaround, that wear should cost the Warriors, especially since they have been in must-win mode for a full week now, playing four games in six days culminating with that loss on Sunday. That is true for everyone at this point in the season, but Memphis countered the fatigue on Sunday. Not to mention, fatigue is more of a worry for a team as old as GSW is. Oh, and as banged up as GSW is. Memphis needs to take advantage of its rest and health edges as early as possible. Finding a first-quarter moneyline at such plus-money is a bit of a surprise.

Bane had six or more boards in four of his final five games of the regular season and player projections for Tuesday’s Play-In clash call for another 6-plus rebound effort from Bane. There will be plenty of chances for rebounds, given the pace of play between these teams. In their four matchups in the regular season, the Grizzlies and Warriors posted a collective pace rating of 105.13 – an uptick from Memphis’s NBA leading tempo of 103.69. Both sides attempted more shots than their season averages in those head-to-encounters. Given the number of possessions and potential field goal attempts, there’s a natural increase in misses. Add in playoff-style intensity on defense and this game is ripe for rebounding opportunities. The stocky Bane will be able to muscle Golden State’s guards on the glass, given the Warriors role out Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski and Buddy Hield in the backcourt.  

Morant made three or more triples in four of those final five contests, including a 5-for-8 outing from distance against Golden State on April 1. Of course, much was made of Morant’s 3-point celebrations in this span, and I expect him to toss a few “grenades” in the Chase Center on Tuesday. Morant has upped his activity from downtown in recent months, with his 3-point attempts jumping from 4.9 to 6.5 shots from deep per outing over the past 25 games. That’s increased further, with Morant taking almost eight shots from beyond the arc in his last 15 contests, making an average of 2.3 3-pointers in those 15 games. Morant didn’t hesitate to let it fly from distance in his previous postseason appearances, averaging six attempts from long range in the playoffs and connecting on more than two of those triples.

Green averages 5.3 assists on the year and has been much more active moving the basketball since the Jimmy Butler trade. Going back to that blockbuster deal in February, Green is handing out 5.8 assists with 11.5 potential assists showing in his advanced stats. His passing prowess peaks in the postseason, with Green averaging at least six assists per playoff game over his last six postseasons. Memphis ranks 18^th in assist-to-FGM rate and not only watched Green record 12 assists in that last meeting but also gave up seven dimes to the mercurial forward back in November.

Since the All-Star break, Curry has averaged 1.4 steals and has recorded two or more steals in four of his last eight games. That streak is punctuated by a five-steal performance against Memphis on April 1. In his three games against the Grizzlies, Curry has 10 total steals (5, 1, 4) against a Memphis offense that allowed 8.6 steals against on the season (20^th). Looking at the four meetings between the Grizzlies and Warriors this season, those encounters were played at a very speedy pace rating of higher than 105.0, which means plenty of possessions – and chances for steals. Memphis averaged 17.8 turnovers in those four games with Golden State and had the ball stolen a total of 44 times (10 from Curry) – 11 steals per game. Curry’s steals props have bounced between 0.5 and 1.5 steals with juice swinging drastically depending on the number. However, he has surpassed those steal totals six times in his last 10 games.