NBA Picks

It’s the second night of a back-to-back for the Knicks, but after an easy win in Toronto on Tuesday and then returning home to face the defending NBA champions at MSG on Wednesday, I don’t expect any drop-off in Karl-Anthony Towns’ minutes. Towns has played under 30 minutes in each of his last four games, largely because those games turned into blowouts, so there’s no real concern about managing his workload in this spot. This is exactly the type of matchup that highlights why the Knicks traded for Towns. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein are elite roaming rim protectors who the Thunder funnel everything toward, but Towns’ shooting ability as a big completely changes that dynamic. He can pull them away from the paint, neutralize their rim protection, and consistently act as a release valve against a strong Thunder defense. I price the over 17.5 points at -175.

The Thunder have played at the 6th-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which should lead to more possessions for the New York Knicks.. The New York Knicks have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league while playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Sam Hauser is trading at -115 for the over 9.5 points, and that’s a price point we can attack, as I price it closer to -180. Hauser is facing the Charlotte Hornets, whose point-of-attack defense is not their strong suit. That leads to Charlotte over-helping on slashers like Jaylen Brown and struggling to rotate in time to cover the corner shooter. That’s a huge advantage for someone like Hauser, who is hunting three-point shots throughout the game. The Hornets are also a young team that typically struggles with communication and staying attached to shooters who are constantly relocating to find untracked space, especially when playing off a superstar like Brown who commands the defense’s attention.

Offensive rebounds continue possession and generate extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Charlotte Hornets grade out best in in the NBA with 14.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.. This year when they are away from home, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 3.9 foul shots per game (8th-most in the NBA) vs. the Celtics, succeeding in their efforts to get to the free-throw line.

Keyonte George is averaging 23.8 PPG on the road and 26.5 points post-All-Star break.

Andre Drummond let us down as the five-star projection on the Covers NBA Picks and Predictions show on YouTube, but I’m going right back to him on Wednesday. He logged only five minutes in the front end of the back-to-back due to foul trouble and a 40-point blowout, yet still took seven field goal attempts in that span. That level of involvement matters. Utah is extremely thin in the frontcourt, with every center other than Kyle Filipowski sidelined for surgery. That creates a prime opportunity for Drummond to dominate the offensive glass and generate easy putbacks. With Embiid and Paul George out and Edgecombe questionable, the offense should run almost exclusively through Tyrese Maxey in a two-man game with Drummond. Given the Jazz’s poor perimeter defense, they’ll be forced to send help toward Maxey, opening up simple dump-offs for Drummond at the rim. I price the over 8.5 points at -230.

When it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Trail Blazers's unimpressive 33.7% rate of drained threes settles in as the 2nd-weakest in the league this year.

In terms of three-point shots, the Milwaukee Bucks's exceptional 40.5% rate of sunk threes as the home team comes in as the highest in the NBA this year.. The matchup against the Hawks is a positive one for three-pointers; the other team's starting PGs have averaged the 5th-most threes per game in the NBA this year (2.8).. The Milwaukee Bucks are expected to see a spike in plays in this contest from facing the 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league this year (the Atlanta Hawks).

In terms of three-point shots, the Milwaukee Bucks's exceptional 40.5% rate of sunk threes as the home team comes in as the highest in the NBA this year.. The Milwaukee Bucks are expected to see a spike in plays in this contest from facing the 2nd-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league this year (the Atlanta Hawks).

This year when they are away from home, the other team's starting PGs have shot 42.1% on shot attempts from the field (8th-weakest in the league) vs. the Clippers, marking this as a hard matchup.. The Indiana Pacers are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the NBA this year (the LA Clippers).. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers grade out 1stworst in in the NBA as the away team with only 7.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.. This year when they are the visiting team, opposing starting PGs have attempted 2.9 foul shots per game (8th-lowest in the league) against the Clippers, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.

This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have tallied 11.6 shot attempts per game (5th-fewest in the NBA) against the LA Clippers, resulting in a tough matchup.. The Indiana Pacers are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the NBA this year (the LA Clippers).. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers grade out 1stworst in in the NBA as the away team with only 7.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.