NBA Picks

This is a prop I played during the regular season for Tyler Herro against the Charlotte Hornets, and with the line at 4.5 assists at plus money, I’m going right back to it in this high-stakes elimination game where his minutes and usage should be sky-high. I fully expect Erik Spoelstra and the Heat to lean heavily on the Herro–Bam Adebayo two-man game given what’s on the line. If that’s the case, Herro’s potential assists should rise significantly. Herro’s ability to knock down mid-range jumpers allows him to manipulate Moussa Diabate’s drop coverage, which should open up plenty of opportunities to find Adebayo on the roll. Once Bam gets downhill, the Hornets lack the size and physicality to slow him down at the rim, increasing the likelihood of those passes turning into actual assists. I price this prop at -140 to go over, so there’s a solid edge at the current number.

Ball finished with 13 assists in a 136-106 blowout of the Miami Heat on March 17.  Since then, Ball has recorded at least eight dimes in eight of 14 games and did so against defenses much stiffer than Miami. Charlotte took on the likes of Detroit, Boston (twice), New York (twice), Minnesota, and Phoenix – all Top 10 in defensive rating. The Heat, on the other hand, are horrendous on D. Miami was 28th in defensive rating in the final 15 games while allowing 127.5 points against in that stretch. Foes racked up an average of 30 assists per contest – fifth most.

You can lay the juice on the over 5.5 assists for Devin Booker at -135—you have a solid edge there, as I price it closer to -230. But you can also consider attacking the alternate line of 7+ assists at plus money in this spot, since Booker’s projection sits just north of seven assists. I feel very confident that, given how the matchups shake out against the Trail Blazers, Booker becomes more of the facilitator while Green takes on the scoring role on Tuesday. Running isolation against Jrue Holiday isn’t a recipe for success, and Booker knows that. He’s a high-IQ player who can shift into a playmaking role when the situation calls for it, and this matchup is one of those spots. We also know that Tiago Splitter’s defensive schemes tend to push Booker toward passing more, because in their only matchup this season, he recorded 14 potential assists—well above his season average of 12.3.

The Phoenix Suns have managed Jalen Green's minutes carefully all season due to an early hamstring injury, but with a playoff spot on the line in the Play-In Tournament, this is a situation where Green should push well past 30 minutes. With Jrue Holiday likely focused on Devin Booker, this sets up as a spot where the Suns can funnel more usage toward Green and let him attack favorable matchups against Portland. Phoenix’s high ball screens—especially with Mark Williams—create a clear advantage here. Against Donovan Clingan’s deep drop coverage, Green will have multiple scoring avenues: he can comfortably pull up from mid-range or use the space to build momentum and attack the rim with his explosiveness. The prop is listed at -105, but I have it closer to -215, which signals a significant edge.

Banchero took the blame for the flop in the finale, despite finishing with a triple-double in the loss. The versatile 6-foot-10 forward has a great opportunity to exploit Embiid’s absence against a smaller 76ers lineup. Banchero’s two meetings with Philadelphia tell the story: With Embiid in, he finished with 14 points on 6-of-18 shooting and scored only two FTMs. Without him, Banchero hung 32 points (10 for 18) with 11 of those coming from the stripe. Player projections for Wednesday sit between 23.3 and 25 points from Banchero. I’m leaning toward the high end of those forecasts, as Philadelphia doesn’t have anyone who can handle his combo of speed and size.

Worry not that he has been back for only four games since his knee injury. Curry hit 5-of-10 triples in his first game back, part of shooting 15-of-36 (41.7%) from beyond the arc in those four games. And the Los Angeles Clippers are only middling defending against 3-pointers, ranking No. 16 in both opponent 3-pointer frequency and percentage made since James Harden left the rotation.