Minnesota @ Memphis picks

The winner of Thursday's Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies matchup will likely host the other in the NBA Play-In tourney. Tuesday's road loss to Milwaukee ended a strong, five-game winning streak. Except for Tuesday's offensive stinker at Milwaukee, Minnesota is playing good basketball on the road against playoff-caliber teams. The Timberwolves should be able to score enough buckets to avoid the season series broom against a Grizzlies squad that's lost for of their previous five at home and is without top perimeter defender Jaylen Wells. 

Morant has put up efforts of 36, 30 and 28 points in those wins and that’s beefed up his scoring total for tonight. Books have Morant’s scoring Over/Under listed at 25.5 and deservedly so, as he’s topped his points prop in nine straight outings. The T-Wolves have done a great job bottling Morant this season. They’ve held the Grizzlies star to outputs of 19 and 12 points in their two contests on a collective 10-for-35 from the field (29%). Minnesota ranks sixth in advance defensive rating and does a great job putting the breaks on opposing teams, employing one of the more methodical paces in the NBA and allowing the seventh fewest fastbreak points – the fuel behind this Grizzlies offense. Player projections would agree. Forecasts for Morant sits between 20.9 and 23.6 points but none come in higher than his 25.5 O/U. My number comes out just short of 22 points from Morant, which should have the Under 25.5 priced at -245.