Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game April 28, 2026
PHI
@
BOS
Tue, Apr 28 • 7:00 PM ET
BOS -11.5 (-106)
Boston should handle business in this closeout spot. Over the last two seasons, the Celtics are 4-0 in series clinching games at home with the wins coming by 34, 15, 18 and 21 points. They’ve controlled this matchup throughout, aside from an outlier shooting night in Game 2. Even with Embiid back, they dominated the glass in Game 4. Expect urgency from Boston so they can rest up and await the winner of Hawks-Knicks.
Payton Pritchard o13.5 Points Scored (-120)
Payton Pritchard averaged 17.0 ppg this season, by far the highest total of his career. While Pritchard started this series slow, he scored 15 points in Game 3 before exploding in Game 4. Heading into Game 5, he’s averaging 15.8 ppg for the series, and his season-long numbers suggest he should get to at least that range for the rest of the playoffs.
ATL
@
NY
Tue, Apr 28 • 8:00 PM ET
Karl-Anthony Towns o35.5 Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-105)
Knicks head coach Mike Brown tried something different in Game 4 against the Atlanta Hawks, running the offense through Karl-Anthony Towns. The result: a triple-double for Towns, and a 16-point win for the Knicks on Saturday. Game 4 marked the third occasion in which he put up at least 37 PRA in this series, and with New York likely to keep running the offense through KAT, I like him to put up similar numbers tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns o3.5 Total Assists (-105)
Karl-Anthony Towns took over as the Knicks' primary playmaker in Game 4. The center set up shop at the top of the key, pulling away interior defenders and dished out 10 assists on 12 potential dimes, finding cutters to the rim and shooters off screen action. KAT holds a size edge over the small Hawks frontcourt, so he's able to see plays develop and finding open hands over the top. New York is trying to get Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges going, which means those guards playing off the ball and making Towns the conduit for this offense. It worked great in Game 4 and the Knicks will stick to it in Game 5.
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POR
@
SA
Tue, Apr 28 • 9:30 PM ET
In the first four games of their series against the Portland Trail Blazers, Castle is averaging 21.0 ppg, and is shooting an outstanding 42.9% from 3-point range. In each of the last three games of the series, Castle has hit two or more shots from deep. Based on that usage, I expect him to hit the Over on his threes made prop tonight.
Castle has cleared this prop in every game he has played at least 34 minutes in this series. Per 34 minutes, he is averaging 21.8 points. With a chance to win a postseason for the first time in San Antonio since 2017, expect Castle to play at least 34 minutes.
ORL
@
DET
Wed, Apr 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Cade Cunningham u28.5 Points Scored (-120)
The reality is, missing three weeks because of a collapsed lung was undoubtedly going to impact Cunningham’s conditioning, and the physical nature of the Magic defense has exacerbated that. Cunningham has shot 15-of-46 (32.6%) in the last two games, both Detroit losses. His 3-point shooting has fallen to 6-of-21 in those two games, 28.6%.
What is more exhausting, driving into the lane against a physical and long defense or chucking 3-pointers for much of the night? Based on his choices in the last two games, Cade Cunningham would rather live beyond the arc right now. Before his collapsed lung, he took 30.8% of his field-goal attempts from deep. In this series, it has jumped to 38.0%. In the last two games, it has been an even more alarming 45.7%. Cunningham should hit multiple 3-pointers simply because he is taking so many rather than getting to the rim, and that inefficient approach helps keep Orlando in every game.
TOR
@
CLE
Wed, Apr 29 • 7:30 PM ET
RJ Barrett o19.5 Points Scored (-105)
With the Cleveland Cavaliers mixing up their defensive matchups and throwing more attention at Scottie Barnes, Barrett’s 22 field goal attempts marked his second largest shot total of the entire season. Barrett’s usage spiked from 25.6 to start the series to 28.0 in Game 4. Player projections for R.J. range from 20.9 to more than 22 points in Game 5. Prior to Game 4’s blackhole of basketball sorrow, Barrett has scored at least 20 points in nine of his last 11 games overall.
After both teams shot a collective 14 for 70 from beyond the arc in Game 4, the lid comes off the rim in Game 5. Barrett has made more than two triples in two of the first three games while Donovan Mitchell still knocked down four 3-pointers Sunday – the third time he’s hit four 3PMs in the first four games.
HOU
@
LAL
Wed, Apr 29 • 10:00 PM ET
LeBron James o23.5 Points Scored (-115)
This number is the shortest scoring O/U listed for James since losing Reaves and Luka Doncic late in the regular season. Even if Reaves does return, he’ll likely be restricted and the scoring load remains on James’ broad shoulders. Player projections for Game 5 don’t discount “The King”, pegging him between 24.5 and more than 27 points Wednesday night. The pressure of giving Houston a glimmer of hope as well as cleaning up his mess from Game 4 has me leaning toward the high side of those forecasts.
Alperen Sengun is the Rockets top option with KD out. I see this as more of a halfcourt game and he can go after the Lakers weak interior defense. His projections call for 24+ points, 11+ rebounds and he’s been a shot swatter on the defensive end all series.
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