Los Angeles Dodgers Picks
1st in National League West
(45 - 27)
Next Game
TB @ LAD Picks
MLB Picks
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total Home Runs (+241)
Junior Caminero is in a strong spot to go deep tonight against Dodgers left hander Eric Lauer. Lauer enters with one of the weakest pitcher profiles on the slate, grading poorly in strikeout rate, ground ball rate, and overall matchup ISO. He has also struggled to contain right handed hitters at home, allowing a 71% elevation rate, along with a .504 expected slugging, .349 expected wOBA, and a 12% barrel rate in that split. Caminero matches up well into Lauer’s arsenal, covering 72.5% of his pitch mix. He has also been in strong recent form against southpaws, posting a .304 average, .902 OPS, nearly 60% hard hit rate, and consistent barrel production over his last 30 plate appearances.
u9.5 (-120)
Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Shohei Ohtani are the Dodgers most familiar with Rays SP Nick Martinez, and they're all hitting .214 or worse against him. It's not a recipe for runs, and Tampa's offense hasn't done enough heavy lifting of late to push this Over the total.
TB (+148)
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (-113)
Junior Caminero is in a strong spot to go over 1.5 total bases against Dodgers left hander Eric Lauer. Lauer enters with one of the weakest pitcher ratings on the slate and grades poorly in key metrics like ISO, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate. He has also struggled at home versus right handed hitters, allowing a 71% elevation rate, while righties have produced a .504 xSLG, .349 xwOBA, and a 12% barrel rate against him. Caminero has been effective against lefties this season and is swinging it well lately with strong contact quality and extra base hit potential.
TB (+149)
The Tampa Bay Rays are trading as +149 underdogs on the moneyline, and that's simply too long of a price. I make the Rays closer to a +120 underdog in this spot. Nick Martinez is on the bump for Tampa Bay, and while he'll be facing a gauntlet of left-handed bats, what appears to be a massive platoon advantage for the Dodgers isn't quite as straightforward as it seems. Martinez's circle changeup serves as a major equalizer in this matchup. He possesses one of the best circle changeups in baseball, with the pitch currently carrying a run value of +9. The sharp movement of the pitch, breaking down and away from left-handed hitters, does an excellent job of neutralizing pull-side power and forcing weaker contact. That pitch profile should play particularly well against the Dodgers' left-handed-heavy lineup and gives Martinez a much better chance of navigating this matchup than the market appears to be suggesting.
