Los Angeles Dodgers Picks
1st in National League West
(20 - 11)
Next Game
Fri, May 1
20:15 ET
LAD @ STL Picks
MLB Picks
Liberatore is a pitcher with a career 5.04 xERA who has long struggled to keep batters from reaching base (1.39 WHIP), and LA’s star-studded lineup should capitalize.
His pitching counterpart, Emmet Sheehan, is dealing with decreased velocity. He’s averaging 94.6 mph on his heater after sitting at 95.4 in each of his first two seasons in the league.
His stuff (91 Stuff+) has been poor, and the Cardinals are good enough against RHP (104 wRC+) to hope for a few runs on Friday.
We’re getting a discounted price on the best team in the league because they’re on the road, have lost two straight, and are playing a team on a four-game winning streak.
The St. Louis Cardinals are just 7-8 at home, however, and Matthew Liberatore’s 5.82 xERA and 6.40 FIP will be a problem against a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that rakes against left-handed pitchers (129 wRC+).
LA is fully rested after an off day, whereas St. Louis was active on Thursday and has a taxed bullpen (six arms have tossed 29+ pitches over the last three days).
Total Bases
Jordan Walker u1.5 Total Bases (-230)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Busch Stadium as the 2nd-worst field in Major League Baseball for right-handed home runs.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with lower temperatures, and the weather forecast for this contest predicts the 5th-lowest temperature of all games on the slate at 59°.. Batting from the same side that Emmet Sheehan throws from, Jordan Walker meets a tough challenge in today's matchup.. Over the last 7 days, Jordan Walker's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 21% down to 0%.. In the last week, Jordan Walker's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 19.4%.
Total RBIs
Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Emmet Sheehan throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Alec Burleson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
Total RBIs
Kyle Tucker o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Tucker in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Kyle Tucker is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Kyle Tucker has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 92.3-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 88.5-mph average.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Kyle Tucker's 25.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.8%.
Total RBIs
Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+254)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Nolan Gorman is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Nolan Gorman will hold the platoon advantage against Emmet Sheehan today.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's game.. Nolan Gorman has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88-mph to 91.3-mph over the past 7 days.
Total RBIs
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+205)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his home run skill, Jordan Walker ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jordan Walker is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total RBIs
Will Smith o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Will Smith ranks as the 19th-best hitter in baseball.. Will Smith is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Will Smith will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Will Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs
Freddie Freeman o0.5 Total RBIs (+181)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddie Freeman as the 14th-best batter in baseball when assessing his batting average talent.. Freddie Freeman is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. With a .364 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Freddie Freeman finds himself in the 93rd percentile.. Posting a .291 batting average since the start of last season, Freddie Freeman is positioned in the 93rd percentile.
Total RBIs
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Teoscar Hernandez's BABIP skill is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Teoscar Hernandez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Teoscar Hernandez will hold the platoon advantage over Matthew Liberatore today.. In the past 14 days, Teoscar Hernandez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.7-mph over the course of the season to 97.7-mph lately.
Total RBIs
Ivan Herrera o0.5 Total RBIs (+226)
Projection 0.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Ivan Herrera will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.. Ivan Herrera has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 10.4% seasonal rate to 17.6% in the past two weeks.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Alec Burleson o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+105)
Projection 1.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Emmet Sheehan throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Alec Burleson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
