Texas @ San Diego Picks & Props

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Evan Carter ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Evan Carter is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. Evan Carter hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 7th-worst park in MLB for right-handed BABIP. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects the 3rd-most favorable pitching conditions of all games on the slate today. Hitting from the same side that Jack Leiter throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will be at a disadvantage in today's matchup. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last year to this one, going from 48.8% to 37.7%.

The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Elias Diaz will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Elias Diaz has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 91-mph average to last season's 88.3-mph EV. Elias Diaz's launch angle this year (17°) is significantly higher than his 7.3° mark last season.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jake Burger ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Jake Burger will have the handedness advantage against David Morgan in today's game... and even better, Morgan has a huge platoon split. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.5°, Jake Burger has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 47.5° mark in the last week. Jake Burger has been unlucky this year, putting up a .281 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .340 — a .059 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Duran in the 76th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Ezequiel Duran will hold the platoon advantage over David Morgan today... and even better, Morgan has a huge platoon split. Ezequiel Duran has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 93.6-mph average to last season's 89.8-mph average.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adolis Garcia is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Adolis Garcia will hold the platoon advantage against David Morgan today... and moreover, Morgan has a huge platoon split. Adolis Garcia has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.2-mph average to last year's 91-mph average.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Wyatt Langford will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against David Morgan in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Morgan has a huge platoon split. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Wyatt Langford's true offensive ability to be a .353, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .038 deviation between that figure and his actual .315 wOBA. Wyatt Langford's 12.6% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) grades out in the 80th percentile this year.

The switch-hitting Jonah Heim will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against David Morgan... and even better, Morgan has a huge platoon split. Jonah Heim hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Jonah Heim's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.8% up to 14.3%. Jonah Heim has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 92-mph in the past two weeks. Over the past 14 days, Jonah Heim's 54.8% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.6%.

The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Kyle Higashioka will have the handedness advantage over David Morgan today... and even more favorably, Morgan has a huge platoon split. Kyle Higashioka's launch angle in recent games (31.6° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is significantly better than his 18.1° seasonal angle.

The #7 ballpark in Major League Baseball for suppressing BABIP to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report expects the 3rd-most favorable pitching conditions of all games on the slate today. Jackson Merrill has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 11.7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last week. Over the last 7 days, Jackson Merrill's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17.8%.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Marcus Semien ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcus Semien is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Because of David Morgan's huge platoon split, Marcus Semien will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game. In the past 7 days, Marcus Semien's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.4-mph over the course of the season to 100.8-mph of late.

Josh Smith is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Posting a 1.78 K/BB rate this year, Josh Smith has demonstrated good plate discipline, placing in the 76th percentile. Josh Smith has posted a .286 batting average this year, placing in the 85th percentile.

The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Martin Maldonado will hold that advantage in today's game. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Martin Maldonado ranks in the 77th percentile with a 16.5° launch angle, which is one of the steepest angles in the majors.

Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Jack Leiter throws from, Gavin Sheets will have the upper hand in today's game. Gavin Sheets will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Gavin Sheets has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.4-mph average to last year's 87.8-mph EV. Using Statcast data, Gavin Sheets grades out in the 78th percentile for offensive ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .342.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 8th-best hitter in Major League Baseball. Corey Seager is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Corey Seager has made big strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 16.5% seasonal rate to 40% in the last week's worth of games. Corey Seager has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 102.3-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal mark of 96-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez as the 2nd-best batter in baseball when it comes to his batting average ability. Luis Arraez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Luis Arraez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jack Leiter in today's matchup. Luis Arraez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Batting from the opposite that Jack Leiter throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Jake Cronenworth will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Jake Cronenworth's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.6%.

Xander Bogaerts's batting average skill is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Xander Bogaerts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Xander Bogaerts will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Xander Bogaerts has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.2-mph average to last season's 89.6-mph EV. Xander Bogaerts has been unlucky this year, posting a .299 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .329 — a .030 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Manny Machado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Manny Machado has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 12.3% seasonal rate to 18.8% in the last week's worth of games.

The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. Trenton Brooks will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jack Leiter today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Trenton Brooks will hold that advantage in today's game. Trenton Brooks's speed has gotten better this year. His 24.85 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.45 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sam Haggerty in the 80th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park. The switch-hitting Sam Haggerty will get to bat from his good side (0) today against David Morgan... and even better, Morgan has a huge platoon split. Sam Haggerty has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 92.3-mph. Over the past 14 days, Sam Haggerty's 30% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 22%.