Chicago @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Alec Burleson's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 92.9-mph average last season has lowered to 90.8-mph. When it comes to his batting average, Alec Burleson has had positive variance on his side this year. His .307 rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .255.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest fences in the league — generally bad for HRs. Jameson Taillon will have the handedness advantage over Masyn Winn in today's matchup. In the last 14 days, Masyn Winn's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.5% down to 0%. Masyn Winn has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph dropping to 83.4-mph over the past two weeks. Masyn Winn's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off of late, falling from 44.2% on the season to 33.3% over the last 14 days.

In today's matchup, Brendan Donovan is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.6% rate (82nd percentile).

The weather forecast expects the 2nd-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Victor Scott II will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jameson Taillon in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Victor Scott II will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Victor Scott II's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, going from 44.1% on the season to 66.7% in the last week's worth of games. Checking in at the 83rd percentile, Victor Scott II has posted a .335 BABIP this year.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Dansby Swanson is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The weather forecast expects the 2nd-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Dansby Swanson hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Dansby Swanson's launch angle this year (14.4°) is considerably better than his 10.2° mark last year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 7th-best hitter in the majors. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. The weather forecast expects the 2nd-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Kyle Tucker will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael McGreevy today. Extreme groundball hitters like Kyle Tucker tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Michael McGreevy.

The weather forecast expects the 2nd-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.2°, Matt Shaw has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 20° angle in the last week. Matt Shaw has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .275 rate is a fair amount lower than his .301 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Ian Happ is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today's game. The weather forecast expects the 2nd-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. The switch-hitting Ian Happ will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Michael McGreevy. Ian Happ has made significant gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 8.7% seasonal rate to 23.1% over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. The weather forecast expects the 2nd-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Michael Busch will hold the platoon advantage against Michael McGreevy in today's matchup. Michael Busch's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 18.1% to 22.5%. Michael Busch's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 48.4% on the season to 64.3% in the past week.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Pete Crow-Armstrong is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The weather forecast expects the 2nd-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Hitting from the opposite that Michael McGreevy throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an edge in today's matchup. The Barrel% of Pete Crow-Armstrong has significantly improved, with an increase from 8% last year to 14.1% this year.

Hitting from the same side that Michael McGreevy throws from, Seiya Suzuki meets a tough challenge in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Seiya Suzuki in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. The weather forecast expects the 2nd-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Lars Nootbaar will have the handedness advantage over Jameson Taillon in today's game. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The weather forecast expects the 2nd-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Nolan Gorman will hold the platoon advantage over Jameson Taillon today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's game. Nolan Gorman's launch angle recently (26.7° in the last 7 days) is significantly better than his 21.3° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. The weather forecast expects the 2nd-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Nico Hoerner ranks in the 89th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .287. Nico Hoerner has shown good plate discipline this year, ranking in the 86th percentile with a 1.52 K/BB rate. In notching a .292 batting average this year, Nico Hoerner is ranked in the 89th percentile.

The weather forecast expects the 2nd-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Reese McGuire will have the handedness advantage over Michael McGreevy today. Reese McGuire has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.9-mph average to last year's 89.1-mph figure. Reese McGuire's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 15% to 27.6%.

The weather forecast expects the 2nd-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Carson Kelly has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.3-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.4-mph average. In notching a .360 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Carson Kelly finds himself in the 88th percentile for hitting ability. Grading out in the 88th percentile, Carson Kelly has posted a .364 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year. When it comes to plate discipline, Carson Kelly's talent is quite impressive, sporting a 1.22 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 94th percentile.

The weather forecast expects the 2nd-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Pedro Pages will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

The weather forecast expects the 2nd-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today. Over the past week, Nolan Arenado's 22.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.6%. With a 1.48 K/BB rate this year, Nolan Arenado has shown impressive plate discipline, placing in the 88th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Willson Contreras ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The weather forecast expects the 2nd-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Willson Contreras will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.