Chicago @ St. Louis picks

The Cubs are running along a bit of a cold stretch with a 10-10 record and the lowest BABIP in the majors in June. There is too much talent stepping to the plate in the Chicago lineup to continue having such poor luck at the dish. Plus, the Cubbies still sport a 19th-ranked wOBA and fifth-ranked ISO during the 20-game stretch. I am also skeptical that Cards rookie Michael McGreevy can pitch deep into Tuesday’s game and hold the Cubbies in check. He pitches to contact, after all.

Tonight’s clash plays in Burleson’s favor from a power standpoint. He’ll face Jameson Taillon, who has given up an MLB-high 18 home runs. Burleson is 6-for-15 lifetime against him with two long balls. The 28-year-old smacked a homer on Monday versus Chicago and has three bombs in his last five appearances. 

The Cubs are second in the majors in runs per game (5.36) and fourth in OPS (.767) while the Cardinals plate 4.88 runs per game and bat .270 at home. The Cards have recalled Michael McGreevy from the minors for a spot start today. The 24-year-old has impressive numbers in a limited sample size but his xERA (3.82) and xBA (.271) indicate he'll see regression. Chicago will give the pill to Jameson Taillon who has a 4.82 FIP through 15 starts.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 7th-best hitter in the majors.. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 8th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 5th-hottest weather of all games today at 91°.. Kyle Tucker will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael McGreevy today.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 18th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 8th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 94°.. Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.9% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Dansby Swanson is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 8th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 5th-hottest weather of all games today at 91°.. Dansby Swanson hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 8th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 5th-hottest weather of all games today at 91°.. Carson Kelly has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.3-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.4-mph average.. In notching a .360 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Carson Kelly finds himself in the 88th percentile for hitting ability.. Grading out in the 88th percentile, Carson Kelly has posted a .364 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 8th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 5th-hottest weather of all games today at 91°.. Lars Nootbaar will have the handedness advantage over Jameson Taillon in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 97th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 8th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 94°.. Nolan Gorman will hold the platoon advantage over Jameson Taillon today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's game.

On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 8th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 94°.. Playing on the road typically weakens pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jameson Taillon today.. Jameson Taillon gave up a colossal 6 earned runs in his last outing.. Jameson Taillon has utilized his cutter 12.8% less often this season (12.2%) than he did last year (25%).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 97th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 8th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 91°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.3-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for hitters.. Nolan Gorman will hold the platoon advantage over Jameson Taillon today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 7th-best hitter in the majors.. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 8th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 5th-hottest weather of all games today at 91°.. Kyle Tucker will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael McGreevy today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 7th-best hitter in the majors.. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. On average, the fence height at Busch Stadium is the 8th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 5th-hottest weather of all games today at 91°.. Kyle Tucker will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael McGreevy today.