Atlanta @ San Francisco Picks & Props

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the most favorable pitching conditions on the schedule today. Logan Webb will have the handedness advantage over Austin Riley today. Austin Riley will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. Austin Riley's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last season to this one, falling from 18.4% to 15.4%. By putting up a 3.93 K/BB rate this year, Austin Riley has displayed poor plate discipline, grading out in the 20th percentile.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the most favorable pitching conditions on the schedule today. Logan Webb will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ronald Acuna Jr. today. Ronald Acuna Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.

Alex Verdugo's batting average talent is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Hitting from the opposite that Logan Webb throws from, Alex Verdugo will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Alex Verdugo's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off lately, going from 44.7% on the season to 33.3% in the last week. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.314) implies that Alex Verdugo has experienced some negative variance this year with his .286 actual wOBA.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the most favorable pitching conditions on the schedule today. Hitting from the same side that Bryce Elder throws from, Heliot Ramos encounters a tough challenge in today's game. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves. Heliot Ramos's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 95.2-mph seasonal average has lowered to 88.6-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.5°, Heliot Ramos's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls has dropped significantly in recent games (4.1° in the past 14 days).

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the most favorable pitching conditions on the schedule today. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves. In the last two weeks, Jung Hoo Lee's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal mark of 89.9 mph to 87.3 mph.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Ozzie Albies pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Hitters such as Ozzie Albies with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Logan Webb who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Ozzie Albies has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 92.5-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal EV of 88.5-mph. Ozzie Albies has been unlucky this year, putting up a .293 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .321 — a .028 deviation.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Willy Adames ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Extreme flyball hitters like Willy Adames generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryce Elder. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Willy Adames will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Willy Adames's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (27.3°) is a significant increase over his 22.2° angle last year.

Dominic Smith is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Hitting from the opposite that Bryce Elder throws from, Dominic Smith will have an advantage in today's matchup. Dominic Smith will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Dominic Smith is in the 96th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (20.5% rate since the start of last season).

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Nick Allen has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Nick Allen has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.2-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 85.5-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Extreme groundball hitters like Matt Chapman usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryce Elder. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Matt Chapman will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Patrick Bailey will get to bat from his better side against Bryce Elder in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Patrick Bailey will hold that advantage today. Patrick Bailey has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 7.5% seasonal rate to 12.5% in the past two weeks. Patrick Bailey has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 92.7-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 88.4-mph EV.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Mike Yastrzemski will have the handedness advantage over Bryce Elder in today's matchup. Mike Yastrzemski pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Mike Yastrzemski usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryce Elder. Mike Yastrzemski will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Drake Baldwin has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Hitting from the opposite that Logan Webb throws from, Drake Baldwin will have an advantage in today's matchup. Drake Baldwin has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 11.2% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past 7 days. In the last two weeks, Drake Baldwin's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95-mph over the course of the season to 101-mph in recent games.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Matt Olson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Olson is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Matt Olson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Logan Webb in today's game. Matt Olson has made big gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 12.5% rate last season to 17.9% this season.

Daniel Johnson is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Daniel Johnson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryce Elder in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Daniel Johnson will hold that advantage today.

Wilmer Flores is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Extreme flyball bats like Wilmer Flores tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryce Elder. Wilmer Flores will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Marcell Ozuna is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Marcell Ozuna has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 13% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the past 7 days. Marcell Ozuna's launch angle in recent games (21.4° over the last 7 days) is a significant increase over his 13.8° seasonal angle.

Tyler Fitzgerald's BABIP talent is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Tyler Fitzgerald will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Tyler Fitzgerald has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 82.8-mph to 85.1-mph over the last week. Tyler Fitzgerald's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, going from 16.7% on the season to 24% over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for bats. Hitting from the opposite that Logan Webb throws from, Michael Harris II will have an advantage today. Despite posting a .254 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Michael Harris II has had bad variance on his side given the .070 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324.